1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that The Gambia should reduce its domestic emissions by 25% emit no more than 2.2 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.
The Gambiaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
The Gambia’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets out an emissions reduction target of 49.7% (incl. LULUCF) below business as usual (BAU) by 2030 which translates to an absolute emissions level of 2.7 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF in 2030.1-3
1 Climate Action Tracker. The Gambia – Policies & action (6 Jul 2022 update). Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
2 The Republic of The Gambia. Second Nationally Determined Contribution of The Gambia. UNFCCC. 2021.
3 CAT. The ten most important short-term steps to limit warming to 1.5°C. 2016.
4 Republic of The Gambia. The Gambia’s long-term climate-neutral development strategy 2050. 2022.
5 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). (2021) doi:10.5281/zenodo.5175154.
6 Government of The Gambia (GOTG). Third National Communication of the Gambia under the UNFCCC. UNFCCC. 2020.
7 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Circular GHG mitigation opportunities inThe Gambia – A metabolic approach to defining a resource efficient and low-carbon future. 2021. assessment – undp-ndcsp-gambia-circular-GHG-mitigation-report %285%29%5B46%5D_0.pdf
8 IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). Energy Profile – Gambia. 2021.
9 Camara, I., Jallow, A., Jallow, B. & Swaby, G. Towards a low-carbon climate-resilient future. Developing The Gambia’s 2050 Climate Vision. 2021.
10 The Republic of The Gambia. The Gambia 2050 Climate Vision. 2021.
11 Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MoPE). Strategic Plan 2021-2025. 2021.
12 Ritchie, H. & Roser, M. Gambia: Energy Country Profile. OurWorldInData.org 2020.
13 “Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MoPE). Universal Access by 2025 and Transforming The Gambia Electricity Sub-sector: Strategic Roadmap 2021-2040. 2021.
14 Climate Action Tracker. The Gambia – Targets (6 Jul 2022 update). Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
15 News Desk. Gambia Adopts ECOWAS Approved Minimum Energy Performance Standards. News Ghana. 2022.
The Gambia’s 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway is feasible to achieve if the country receives adequate international support.
Long term strategy
The Gambia submitted its Long Term Climate Neutral Development Strategy 2050 to the UNFCCC in September 2022 which includes its net zero target by 2050.4 To be 1.5°C compatible, The Gambia’s GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) need to fall to 40% below 2015 levels by 2050 which equals 1.8 MtCO₂e.
When excluding LULUCF, these emissions reductions will be mostly driven by efforts to improve agricultural practices and to reduce reliance on imported fuel oil in the transport sector.