The Gambia’s second NDC, submitted in September 2021, includes land use emissions. As land use accounted for over a third of the country’s emissions in 2017, including it in the NDC greatly expands covered emissions.,, However, the second NDC does not result in lower emissions than the first one due to the upward revision of the BAU scenario.
The Gambia’s NDC target of 49.7% reduction below BAU including LULUCF in 2030 contains an unconditional component equal to a 2.6% reduction. The majority of the unconditional emissions reductions of the NDC target will be met through the land sector with a small contribution from renewable energy use. Excluding LULUCF, the conditional NDC target in 2030 would result in absolute emissions of 2.7 MtCO₂e/yr, or 8% below 2015 levels. The unconditional portion of the NDC would result in 5.5 MtCO₂e/yr, or 85% above 2015 levels. The Gambia’s NDC target is not aligned with a 1.5°C pathway.
The Gambia could achieve a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway if it received adequate international support. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that The Gambia’s domestic emissions reductions would need to be 25% below 2015 levels or 2.2 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.
Long term pathway
The Gambia has a set a net zero target by 2050 included in its Long-term strategy released in September 2022.,
To be 1.5°C compatible, The Gambia’s GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) need to fall to 40% below 2015 levels by 2050, equating to 1.8 MtCO₂e.
When excluding LULUCF, these emissions reductions will be mostly driven by efforts in the agriculture and energy sector. Even though The Gambia’s agriculture sector uses far less synthetic materials (e.g. fertilizers) than the rest of the sub-Saharan African countries, the growing population and declining yield makes it a difficult sector to decarbonise.