Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Norway’s strengthened 2030 target aims to reduce GHG emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030 (52% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF).¹ In absolute terms this is a reduction from 51 MtCO₂e/yr in 1990 to 25 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. A 60% reduction below 1990 levels is the median reduction in our derived range of pathways and is aligned with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature target.

Under current policies, Norway is projected to fall well short of achieving its 2030 emissions reduction target.² This does not include the impact of the government’s recently released white paper outlining its climate action plan. It is currently not clear whether the policies contained in this plan are sufficient to achieve a 55% reduction below 1990 levels.

With regards to the LULUCF sector, Norway is committed to ensure that emissions do not exceed removals from the sector.³

Norway's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Norway’s NDC aims for a transformation towards a “low-emission society”, which has been quantified by the government as an 90-95% reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels.⁴ This is in line with Paris Agreement compatible pathways showing emissions reductions of 92% below 1990 levels by 2050.⁵

All scenarios show low levels of negative emissions technologies, mainly due to Norway’s very low carbon power sector. Harder to abate residual emissions from agriculture and the energy sector in 2050 could instead be addressed through a continuation of afforestation and reforestation efforts.

Heavy ongoing investment into industrial carbon capture and storage reflects Norway’s strategy for decarbonising its fossil fuel extraction and processing sector and other heavy industries.⁶ However, commercial viability of this technology has remained elusive for many years suggesting rather a multi-faceted approach to achieving net zero emissions may be necessary in order to reach the emission reduction goals. Such alternatives could include afforestation, direct air capture, or enhanced weathering, among others.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Given their high share in final energy use, Norway’s energy and manufacturing industries, and transport sector would need to contribute the largest emissions reduction in Norway to be consistent with a 1.5˚C compatible pathway. This would require the share of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix to decrease from 54% share in 2017 to 25% by 2030 and less than 10% by 2050.

Norway’s very low carbon power sector means that switching to electric vehicles has an outsized impact on reducing emissions compared to most countries. The world-leading 2025 goal to achieve 100% zero emission passenger vehicle sales needs to be supplemented with strong measures to decarbonise remaining forms of transport beyond those addressed in its recent climate action plan.⁷^,⁸

Norway’s heavy investment in industrial carbon capture and storage, a technology that has not yet proven its commercial viability, could be supplemented with policies to catalyse the uptake of other zero carbon technologies as a way to ensure a timely industrial decarbonisation. The proposed tripling of Norway’s carbon tax is a promising attempt to rein in oil and gas sector emissions, but this would require a plan to ensure the sector reaches net zero emissions.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Norway. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	51	50	21 18 to 26	7 3 to 13	4 -6 to 6	2066
Relative to reference year in %			-60% -65 to -50%	-86% -93 to -74%	-92% -112 to -89%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	35	42	18 15 to 22	4 1 to 10	0 -8 to 4	2052 2042 to 2064
Relative to reference year in %			-50% -58 to -38%	-89% -96 to -72%	-99% -123 to -90%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Norwegian Government. Update of Norway’s nationally determined contribution. 1–16 (2020). ↩
Norwegian Environmental Agency. Norway’s Fourth Biennial Report. (2020). ↩
Norwegian Government. Update of Norway’s nationally determined contribution. 1–16 (2020). ↩
Norwegian Environmental Agency. Norway’s Fourth Biennial Report. (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Norwegian Environmental Agency. Norway’s Fourth Biennial Report. (2020). ↩
Norwegian Government. Norway’s comprehensive climate action plan. (2021). ↩
Norsk elbilforening. Norwegian EV policy. (2021). ↩

What is Norway's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Norway's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Norway's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Norway's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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