Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

In its updated NDC submitted in October 2021, Argentina set an absolute GHG emissions target of 316 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.¹ This is equivalent to reducing emissions by 9% below 2015 levels. To align with a 1.5°C pathway, Argentina would need to have reduced emissions in 2030 by 29-47% below 2015 levels. This translates to absolute emissions of 181-248 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF. Argentina’s current 2030 ambition is not yet consistent with these pathways.

Argentina's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

So far, Argentina has only announced its intent to reach carbon neutrality (net zero CO₂) in 2050 but has not yet provided details of how it will reach this goal nor intermediate targets to get there.²^,³

In the long term, in order to be compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C, total GHG emissions in Argentina would need to be reduced to between 72-83% below 2015 levels by 2050 (excl. LULUCF), equivalent to 59-96 MtCO₂e.⁴

The remaining emissions will need to be balanced by using carbon dioxide removal approaches, such as reforestation/afforestation or direct air capture. Given that the LULUCF sector is a source of emissions, Argentina will need to implement stronger policies to reduce its land use emissions and turn this sector into a sink to help reach net zero GHG.

A rapid decline in CO₂ emissions will need to come from the energy sector, as Argentina’s largest overall emitter of CO₂. Agriculture, the second highest emitting sector would be the last to decarbonise, reaching zero emissions after 2050. Reductions in this sector, as well as enhancing natural sink, would help to reach net zero GHG emissions by mid-century.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Switching from an energy supply dominated by oil and gas to one with higher shares of renewables, including wind, solar and biomass, will be key to Argentina’s 1.5°C aligned energy system transformation. The amount of renewable energy used in future energy supply scenarios is inversely related to the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Scenarios showing a higher adoption of renewables by 2030 are able to rely far less on CDR. A lower adoption of renewables makes these technologies more likely to be needed. Scenarios that effectively reduce overall energy demand are also less likely to require the use of negative emissions technologies. While Argentina has set a target of 20% non-hydro renewable power by 2025, this is likely to be insufficient to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal, given the need to reach a greater than three-quarters share including hydropower by 2030.⁵^,⁶ In addition, concrete targets for the whole energy sector, or for phasing out fossil fuels have not been established.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Argentina. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	348	340	213 181 to 248	122 99 to 143	79 59 to 96
Relative to reference year in %			-39% -48 to -29%	-65% -72 to -59%	-77% -83 to -72%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	204	188	115 74 to 128	34 -12 to 56	-4 -19 to 5	2049 2039 to 2064
Relative to reference year in %			-44% -64 to -37%	-83% -106 to -73%	-102% -109 to -98%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker. Argentina. November 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ↩
Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible Argentina. Segunda Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República Argentina. UNFCCC, 2020. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Argentina. November 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022. ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Bauza, V. A New Dawn: Argentina Taps Into Its Renewable Energy Potential. International Finance Corporation, 2017. ↩
Caruana, M. E. C. La energía renovable en Argentina como estrategia de política energética e industrial. Probl. del Desarollo 50, 2019. ↩

What is Argentina's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Argentina's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Argentina's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Argentina's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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