What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Paris Agreement compatible pathways require Egypt’s power sector carbon intensity to decline from 500 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 20–80 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. This could be achieved through a sharp reduction of fossil fuels in the power sector from 91% in 2019 to 5–23% by 2030. This would need to be supported by a high uptake of renewable energy (including variable renewables, hydro and biomass) in the power mix from a share of 9% in 2019 to 77–95% by 2030.
As part of the Egypt’s Sustainable Development Strategy, the Egypt Vision 2030 targets a 35% share of renewable generation in the power mix by 2030 (16% solar, 14% wind and 5% hydroelectric) and the Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) targets 42% renewable energy generation by 2035.1,2 At COP26, the government announced they are aiming to achieve this target five years earlier; however, Egypt does not appear on track to meet the ISES interim target of 20% renewable generation by 2022. Considering Egypt’s ambition to serve as a regional energy hub exporting electricity to other African countries and Europe, and these countries’ increasing appetite for renewable energy, Egypt would benefit from an expansion of renewables in their power sector.3,4
Egypt's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
1.5˚C compatible pathways show that Egypt’s power sector reaches a fully decarbonised power sector between around 2035 and 2040. By mid-century, power sector carbon intensity would need to decline to zero to –20 gCO₂/kWh.5 This will be driven by the phase out of fossil fuels and rapid uptake of renewables, reaching 100% of the power mix by 2050, in some pathways already by 2040.
Egypt does not have plans to phase out fossil fuels. The ISES and Egypt Vision 2030 both target an expansion of coal in the power sector; however, all recent plans for new coal plants have been cancelled.6,7,8 Egypt also does not have a long-term renewable energy target past 2035.
Egypt's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Egypt to be on the order of USD 6 to 13 billion by 2030 and 6 to 14 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Egypt's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Egypt
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
503
|
23 to
84
|
-12 to
0
|
-19 to
0
|
2036 to
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-95 to
-83%
|
-102 to
-100%
|
-104 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
77
|
5 to
21
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2037 to
2039
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
9
|
77 to
95
|
99 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
91
|
5 to
23
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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