What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Egypt
Egypt’s conditional NDC target needs to be strengthened to align with 1.5°C
Egypt’s conditional NDC would lead to a 53-58% emissions increase above 2015 levels by 2030. To be 1.5°C compatible, Egypt’s emissions would need to be 4% above 2015 by 2030, and 11% below 2015 levels by 2035 (excluding LULUCF). Egypt can strengthen the ambition of its NDC by bolstering its conditional target, and committing to meeting a portion of these reductions through its own resources.
Egypt's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Egypt’s recently weakened renewables targets send the wrong market signals
Egypt recently revised its 2040 renewables target downwards – from 58% of electricity generation to 40%. To the contrary, aligning with a 1.5°C compatible pathway would see renewables supply almost all of Egypt’s electricity demand by 2040. Decarbonising Egypt’s power sector in line with 1.5°C would see average investments in the range of USD 9.5-13 bn/yr between 2026-2030. This would fall to 3-9 bn/yr between 2031-2040.
Decoupling emissions from industrial growth can see Egypt hit economic and climate goals
Egypt aims to increase the share of manufacturing to 20% of total GDP (up from 14%) by 2030. Egypt could harness its significant solar power potential to provide cheap electricity to industry, supporting growth while reducing emissions. 1.5°C compatible pathways show the share of electricity in the industrial energy mix increasing to 37-53% by 2030, up from 26% in 2022.