What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

All 1.5°C pathways show declining fossil fuel use, replaced instead with higher shares of electricity. Under the Deep Electrification pathway – which best captures the rapid cost reductions seen in wind and solar over the past decade and the potential for future progress – electricity would meet over half of the industry sector’s energy needs by 2030 and nearly three-quarters by 2040.

Egypt aims to increase industry’s share of GDP to 20% of the economy by 2030, up from the current share of 14%.³3 Achieving this target while aligning with 1.5°C will involve decoupling emissions from economic growth. A significant share of this will come in the form of green investments, which will form at least 75% of total public investments by 2030, with a heavy focus on developing a domestic green hydrogen industry.⁴4 Given Egypt’s huge solar potential and the large rooftops and land space that many industrial companies own, ambitious renewables targets can be met with policy and financial support which would take pressure off the grid and, if combined with storage systems, insulate Egyptian industry from potential blackouts.⁵5

All pathways see process-related emissions begin to fall this decade – from 52 MtCO₂e in 2023 to just over 30 MtCO₂e in 2035. Egypt’s domestic fossil fuel industry is not assessed here, but it contributes 10% of economy-wide emissions. Cutting emissions from fossil fuel production will thus be critical to achieving 1.5°C.