What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C pathways show a diversified energy mix for the industry sector with an increase in electricity and decrease in fossil fuels. The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway shows electrification increase to 37% by 2030 and 90% by 2050. Oil and gas would drop to a 46% share in 2030 and further decline to 5% by 2050. Smaller shares of biofuels, biomass and hydrogen make up the rest of the industrial energy mix. While following this pathway would see Egypt retain small shares of fossil fuels as far as 2050 – most likely to power heavy industry – it is also possible to fully decarbonise the mix by replacing these fossil fuels with more hydrogen.

Egypt’s process emissions have been on an upward trajectory for decades, though they have declined in the last two years. A fundamental decoupling of economic growth and emissions will be needed for industries such as cement, iron and steel, and lime production.⁴4 1.5°C pathways show process emissions go from 38 MtCO₂e in 2021⁵5 to 28-41 MtCO₂e in 2030 and 11-14 MtCO₂e in 2050. Although the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway is the only pathway which provides for an increase in emissions up to 2030, it demands the most stringent emissions reductions afterwards, leading to 11 MtCO₂e in 2050. Given the near-term emissions reductions that are possible from electrification, it is more economical to begin decarbonisation early rather than rushing it later on.

A further 11% of Egyptian emissions are caused by fossil fuel production, such as fugitive emissions from oil and gas production. The government aims to cut these emissions by reducing flaring.⁶6