What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Egypt emitted 401 MtCO2e in 2022, making it the second highest emitting African country after South Africa.1 The vast majority of these emissions (68%) come from the energy sector.

As a major oil and gas producing country, fossil fuel production and consumption play a large part in Egypt’s economy. Fossil fuels supplied 95% of the primary energy mix in 2022, while fossil fuel production accounted for 10% of total emissions.2

Egypt has been gradually phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, which distort the market and impede the rollout of renewables. For the fiscal year 2025/26, USD 1.56 bn was directed towards fuel subsidies, down from USD 21 bn in 2013. 3,4 By the end of 2025, subsidies are expected to be fully phased out.5

Outside the energy sector, the rest of Egypt’s emissions are split mostly equally between industrial processes, agriculture, and waste. Egypt’s LULUCF emissions are negligible.

Egypt does not yet have an economy-wide emissions reduction target. Instead, its updated NDC targets emissions reductions in the electricity, transport, and oil and gas subsectors.6 All of these sectoral targets are compared to a business-as-usual scenario and are conditional on international support.

Egypt's 2022 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Egypt’s primary energy mix in 2022 remained heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with gas supplying more than half of energy demand and oil accounting for 41%. The remaining 7% was split between biomass, coal, wind and solar.7

Egypt intends to increase the share of renewables in the power sector to 42% by 2030.8 However, Egypt revised its 2040 renewables target downwards, from a 58% share of electricity generation to 40%. Egypt’s Petroleum Minister stated this is a message to attract more fossil fuel investment.9

Despite being a fossil gas producer, Egypt’s demand outstrips domestic supply and the country remains exposed to price volatility in fossil fuel markets. This volatility heavily impacted Egypt’s economy in 2024, and the situation is likely to worsen in 2025. Increasing import bills have provided fresh impetus for the government to harness its vast wind and solar resources.10,11

Along with wind and solar, huge investments continue to be directed towards domestic fossil fuel production, and Egypt is launching new auctions to develop previously untapped oil and gas fields.12

Egypt also aims to become a hydrogen hub.13 Through partnerships with the private sector, Egypt is pouring tens of billions of dollars into green hydrogen production.14

Targets and commitments

Unconditional target in 2023 NDC:

As expressed by the country:15

  • Egypt does not have an unconditional NDC target

Conditional target in 2023 NDC:

As expressed by the country:16

  • Electricity sector: emissions reductions of 37% below Business-as-Usual (BAU) by 2030

  • Oil and gas: emissions reductions of 65% below BAU by 2030

  • Transport: emissions reductions of 7% below BAU by 2030.17

When excluding LULUCF, Egypt’s target translates to:

  • 522-537 MtCO2e, or 53-58% above 2015 levels by 203018

Agriculture Waste Industry (processes)

Energy LULUCF Oil & gas sector Transport

As formulated by the country: [cite target source]

Sector Coverage

Long-term target

Egypt currently does not have a long term emissions reduction target, nor is there one contained in its 2050 National Climate Change Strategy.19

Cookie settings

Just like other websites, we use cookies to improve and personalize your experience. We collect standard Internet log information and aggregated data to analyse our traffic. Our preference cookies allow us to adapt our content to our audience interests.