What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Egypt emitted 353 MtCO2e in 2019 excluding LULUCF, making it the second highest emitting country in Africa after South Africa.1 The energy sector was responsible for 70% of these GHG emissions, with electricity generation alone accounting for a quarter of Egypt’s overall emissions. Between 1990 and 2019, Egypt’s emissions grew by 170%.

The production and consumption of fossil fuels is responsible for the lion’s share of Egypt’s emissions. 96% of the primary energy mix is supplied by fossil fuels, while domestic fossil fuel production accounts for 11% of emissions mostly due to fugitive emissions.

Egypt does not yet have an economy-wide emissions reduction target. Instead, its updated NDC targets emissions reductions in the electricity, transport, and oil and gas subsectors.2 All of these sectoral targets are compared to a business-as-usual scenario and are conditional on international support.

Egypt's 2019 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Energy overview and main policy gaps

In 2021, Egypt’s energy mix was made up almost exclusively of fossil fuels: fossil gas (55%), oil (37%), and coal (2%). Meanwhile, biomass accounted for 4% and non-bio renewables for 2%. Between 2000-2021 the use of gas rose by over 300%, while oil use rose by 61%.3

At just 2% of the energy mix, non-biomass renewables currently account for the same share of energy as coal. However, Egypt possesses vast tracts of desert suitable for solar as well as strong wind potential particularly along the Gulf of Suez, meaning there is potential to drive an ambitious energy transition.4

Egypt currently aims to increase the share of renewables in electricity supply to 42% by 2030.5 The state-owned Egyptian Electricity Holding Company is responsible for electricity supply, but it continues to invest far more into additional fossil fuel capacity than renewables.6 Egypt is pouring tens of billions of dollars into fossil fuels and green hydrogen,7, 8 demonstrating the weight that the government places on becoming a regional fossil fuel and hydrogen hub.9

Economy-wide targets

Unconditional NDC Target:

  • Egypt does not have an unconditional NDC target

Conditional NDC Target:

As expressed by the country:

  • Electricity sector: emissions reductions of 37% below Business-as-Usual (BAU) by 2030

  • Oil and gas: emissions reductions of 65% below BAU by 2030

  • Transport: emissions reductions of 7% below BAU by 2030.10

Egypt’s conditional NDC target translates to 496-512 MtCO2e or 57-61% above 2015 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF)11

Sector coverage:

  • Electricity, Oil & gas, Transport

Long-term target:

  • Egypt currently does not have a long term emissions reduction target, nor is there one contained in its 2050 National Climate Change Strategy.12

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