What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
Egypt’s 2017 NDC provides a list of general mitigation actions rather than a quantified emissions reduction target. Actions are listed for the energy, agriculture, waste, industrial processes and oil and gas sectors, with a strong emphasis on energy. “Additional measures” for the LULUCF sector to increase carbon sequestration are also considered. Implementation of Egypt’s NDC is partly conditional on financial support, with an estimated cost of USD 73.04 billion (including adaptation measures).
Our analysis indicates that Egypt would need to put forward a new NDC, with an ambitious target to reduce emissions to 22% below 2015 levels or 244 MtCO₂e/year (excl. LULUCF) by 2030 to be 1.5˚C compatible. Egypt failed to submit an updated NDC ahead of COP26.
Egypt's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
In a Paris Agreement compatible pathway, Egypt’s GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) reaches 110 MtCO₂e/year by mid-century, or 65% below 2015 levels. When excluding the contribution of the land sector, CO₂ emissions are reduced by 86% below 2015 levels by 2050, enabled by rapid decarbonisation of the power sector.1 Egypt does not have a net zero target and has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.
The industry and energy sectors would need to be the first to reach zero emissions, respectively. Remaining emissions from the agriculture and waste sectors will need to be balanced with negative CO₂ emissions through the deployment of carbon dioxide removals approaches, the need for which could be reduced by an accelerated uptake of renewables.
Egypt's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
The decline of Egypt’s CO₂ emissions would need to come mainly from the decarbonisation of the country’s energy sector. Across analysed pathways, energy emissions are reduced by at least 40% below 2017 levels by 2030. The sector could be fully decarbonised in the 2040s. This requires the reduction of fossil fuel consumption from 95% of the primary energy mix in 2019 to 61–74% by 2030 and 5–21% by 2050. Renewable energy would need to ramp up from 5% in 2019 to 15–38% in 2030 and 50–84% in 2050.
Egypt’s NDC considers Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), co-utilisation of fossil fuels and biomass and co-generation plants as key technologies for energy system transformation and has expressed the desire to replace or upgrade obsolete technologies, including upgrading fossil fuel plants. Considering the long lifetimes and decreasing competitiveness of fossil fuel plants, these measures come with the risk of stranded assets and locking in to high-cost, high-emission technologies.
Egypt's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Egypt. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
314
|
352
|
242
213 to
273
|
156
124 to
165
|
107
97 to
114
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-23%
-32 to
-13%
|
-50%
-61 to
-47%
|
-66%
-69 to
-64%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
231
|
261
|
198
154 to
209
|
91
44 to
124
|
33
16 to
88
|
2068
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-14%
-33 to
-10%
|
-60%
-81 to
-46%
|
-86%
-93 to
-62%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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