What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 1 December 2023

1.5°C compatible pathways

Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets a 32% emissions reduction below BAU by 2030 with 79% of mitigation costs conditional on international support. This translates to a conditional target of 74% above 2010 emission levels or 108 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF.1

With international support, Kenya will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. Paris Agreement compatible pathways show emissions levels of 37-50 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or a reduction of 19-41% below 2010 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF emissions.

Given that current policies indicate that Kenya is on track to meeting its conditional NDC commitment, the existing NDC target does not represent a commitment to more ambitious climate action.

Kenya's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Long term pathway

The NDC alludes to net zero target by 2050 noting that it is part of a transformation ‘to a low-emission society by 2050’.2 However, as of February 2023, Kenya has not yet submitted any long term strategy to the UNFCCC.

Cost effective pathways assessed here indicate that to be aligned with 1.5ºC, remaining GHG emissions in 2050 should be around 32 MtCO₂e/yr or 48% below 2010 levels, excluding LULUCF. Long-term pathways suggest that the agriculture sector - even with reduced emissions - remains Kenya’s biggest emitting sector, while the energy sector is the first sector to decarbonise.

On a pathway to reach net zero emissions, Kenya would need to balance its remaining positive emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches (CDR), either from land sinks or technological options. Given that CDR technologies are unproven at scale, over-reliance on CDR is inherently riskier than cutting emissions, as well as losing out on many of the health and economic co-benefits linked to cutting emissions.

Developing land sinks for Kenya would mean for the country to implement stringent policies to reduce its forest emissions (estimated at a level of around 20 MtCO₂e/yr in 2017) driven by deforestation, themselves partly driven by the use of biomass. Implementing policies and increasing energy access and electrification would be beneficial for the country on multiple levels.3,4 Kenya also has a strategy for increasing and maintaining its tree cover at over 10% by 2022 that will go a long way to protect its forest sinks.5,6,7

Kenya's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

Kenya’s energy system is currently dominated with traditional biomass mostly used for cooking. 2019 data shows the share of households using traditional biomass for cooking was at nearly 70%; charcoal at 42%; LPG at 30% and electric cooking at only 3%.8,9

Although Kenya’s primary energy supply is mostly composed of renewables, when excluding biomass which has severe environmental and health impacts, the share of other renewables reached around 17% in 2019.25 Paris compatible pathways indicate that although the country would need to maintain LLP a high level of renewables, a shift from traditional biomass will be needed, with its 63% share in 2019 reducing by about a third in 2030 and halved by 2040. This can be achieved by increasing energy access and deploying electric cooking in households.

The transport sector is heavily reliant on oil for vehicles and industrial operations as well as in the aviation sector. Thus, government documents have outlined non-motorised transport, bus rapid transit, fuel-efficient vehicles, promotion of electric vehicles as well as fuel efficiency in aviation as ways to reduce emissions in this sector.10,11,12,13 Focus on mass transit, electric vehicles and non-motorised transit will be key in achieving the set targets in this sector.

Kenya’s NDC envisages the use of fossil fuels to achieve universal energy access unless international finance is provided to bridge the gap through renewable energy sources14,15,16 This pro-fossil fuel stance is at odds with Kenya’s abundant renewable energy resources, especially given its advanced geothermal generating capacity which it already plans to increase by about 123% by 2030.17

As of 2019, 84% of Kenyans had access to electricity.18 The MTP III and Energy Policy aim to achieve universal access by 2030.19 This can enable a transformation to clean cooking – especially electric cooking – provided awareness, reliability and other underlying factors are addressed.20,21

Kenya's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Kenya. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2010
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
62
81
43
37 to 50
36
31 to 40
32
26 to 39
Relative to reference year in %
-31%
-41 to -19%
-42%
-50 to -35%
-48%
-58 to -37%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
14
21
14
11 to 16
7
4 to 11
3
0 to 9
2063
Relative to reference year in %
0%
-21 to 15%
-50%
-73 to -19%
-81%
-97 to -38%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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