What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Renewables provided 92% of Kenya’s electricity in 2024, mainly due to its significant hydro, geothermal and wind capacity, and to a lesser extent, solar.1 Since 2010, the role of oil in electricity generation has been drastically reduced from 36% to 8%. Kenya has been sustainably expanding energy access simultaneously with the increased renewables deployment and decommissioning of thermal plants.2,3 The Ministry of Energy notes that the national electricity access rate was approximately 75% (90% in urban and 68% access in rural areas), thus increased capacity would increase this access to cover the remaining 25% that is also part of Kenya’s Sustainable Development Goals commitment for universal electricity access by 2030.4
Kenya's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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All 1.5°C compatible pathways show the share of renewables in the power sector increasing to 99-100% by 2030, in line with the government’s goal of achieving 100% renewable power by 2030 with an installed capacity of over 5000 MW – about double the 2021 capacity.5,6 However Kenya still plans to develop nuclear energy (from 2027) and coal as part of its energy mix, in contradiction to its 100% renewable energy targets.7,8,9
In its draft Long Term Low Emission Development Strategy, Kenya acknowledges the likelihood of continuously falling renewables costs that would influence energy decisions.10 Of the analysed pathways, the Deep Electrification pathway best captures the falling costs of wind and solar power.
Kenya's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Kenya has potential for increased geothermal, wind, solar, biogas and other renewable energy which can be utilised to meet rising energy demands for electrification and expanding energy access as the country develops.11 The assessment done focuses mainly on wind and solar.
To be 1.5°C compatible across all assessed pathways, Kenya would need to increase its renewable energy capacity mostly in wind and solar from between 7.8 – 9.3GW per year by 2030, 15.7-25.1 per year by 2040 and 31.6-71.8 GW per year by 2050. Of all the assessed pathways, the Net-Zero Commitments pathway would require the least investments at 1.33 billion USD per year by 2030, 1.27 billion USD per year by 2040 and 1.35 billion USD per year by 2050. The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for rapid electrification to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system, would require 1.34 billion USD per year by 2030, 2.03 billion USD per year by 2040 and 2.58 billion USD per year by 2050 for wind and solar. Following this pathway would result in an installed capacity of about 72GW in 2050, while the Net-Zero Commitments pathway would result in 32 GW capacity in 2050. Given the conditionality of its NDC, Kenya would require international climate finance amounting to 79% of between 1.22-1.34 billion USD per year by 2030 for investment in renewable energy.
Kenya's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kenya
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
116
|
1 to
4
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2027 to
2030
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-99 to
-97%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
88
|
99 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
99 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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