What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
The Kenyan industry sector’s emissions come from energy use and industrial processes. The share of coal in industrial energy use almost tripled between 2010-2020, primarily due to demand in the cement sector.1 Coal met 46% of industrial energy demand in 2020. All analysed pathways see coal use fall, with the share of electricity rising in its place.
The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway sees the most rapid electrification of Kenya’s industrial sector. By 2030 electricity makes up 54%, with its share rising to 90% by 2050. Meanwhile, fossil fuels are almost halved by 2030 (37%) compared to 2020 levels (66%), and make up 5% of the mix by 2050. Increased electrification is critical to this pathway as it envisions high energy demand from Kenyan industry.
Kenya's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Kenya's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Kenya's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kenya
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
3
|
3 to
5
|
3 to
5
|
3 to
6
|
1 to
6
|
2049
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
0 to
67%
|
0 to
67%
|
0 to
100%
|
-67 to
100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
35
|
28 to
54
|
35 to
60
|
37 to
69
|
36 to
90
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
35
|
30 to
63
|
38 to
68
|
45 to
79
|
60 to
95
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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