What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Across all assessed pathways, biomass remains a major energy source, accounting for 60-90% of the energy mix in 2030 and 50-91% in 2050. When supported by regulations to promote sustainable land use practices and minimise air pollution, bioenergy can be used to replace fossil fuels and play a role in aligning with 1.5ºC compatible pathways.

In the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, increases in electrification and hydrogen as well as a small increase in the share of biofuel and biogas push fossil fuels in the sector to roughly 4% by 2050, down from about 45% in 2022.¹1 The Deep Electrification pathway sees a relatively higher share of hydrogen in the energy mix by 2050, about 6%.

However, most bioenergy consumed in Nigerian industries comes from traditional biomass such as wood, charcoal and agricultural residues, which are mainly converted through direct combustion that can lead to negative health impacts without pollution mitigation measures such as particulate matter filters.²2 Unmoderated increases in production of feedstocks for bioenergy including oil palms and staple grains can be a driver of deforestation and biodiversity loss.

Much of Nigeria’s industry emissions evaluated here come from cement production.³3 Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) sets out a decarbonisation strategy for the sector, including substituting clinker for calcinated clay, introduction of green hydrogen, BECCS and increased electrification, that can help align Nigeria’s industry with a 1.5°C pathway.⁴4 Nigerian cement manufacturers have already been increasing their use of BECCS, utilising agricultural residues.⁵5 Increasing use of filtration equipment on kilns can help prevent associated particulate matter pollution, as can more stringent air and water quality regulation.

While emissions from the oil and gas sector are not evaluated in the assessed pathways, Nigeria is a significant producer of oil and fossil gas, with fossil fuel industry emissions accounting for an estimated 21% of total emissions in 2022 (excluding LULUCF).⁶6 Much of this is a result of gas venting, flaring, and leaks which produce significant amounts of methane and carry negative health implications for local communities.⁷7^,88 Despite this, the Nigerian government is pushing to expand its fossil gas production and consumption, increasing emissions and the risk of stranded assets. ⁹9^,1010