What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Nigeria's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy demand is expected to grow immensely in the next few decades to cover the 40% of the population currently without access, and to aid in development. In the Net Zero commitments pathway, fossil gas declines from 75% of generation in 2022 to just under 45% by 2030, as renewables increase to 56% by 2030. In terms of electricity demand, the Net Zero commitments pathway indicates demand would grow from 38 TWh per year in 2022, to 93 TWh per year in 2030. This means most of the increased demand in this pathway is met by renewables, with the amount of gas in the energy system remaining relatively steady. While 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here align with national studies on renewables out to 2030, there is a significant range of estimates of the expected electricity generation and demand growth of Nigeria in the following decades.3
While the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway shows an increase in fossil gas generation by 2030, it is mostly phased out by 2045. This quick ramp up of fossil gas followed by a phase out would result in asset stranding for fossil gas plants that are built then retired before the full economic lifetime of the plant. Any effort to meet Nigeria’s stated 2060 net zero target while investing in gas in the short term would therefore create a high risk of stranded assets that would burden the Nigerian economy.
In May 2025, the government of Nigeria approved plans to introduce trade barriers which could impact the rollout of renewables, including the Nigeria First Policy which would require companies to source materials primarily from Nigerian firms and potentially place a ban on imports of solar panels.4,5 This could slow down Nigeria’s rollout of wind and solar generation by increasing costs and reducing the overall level of imports of clean energy technology.6
Nigeria's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
88 million Nigerians lack access to reliable electricity, and the national grid faces significant reliability challenges, forcing many Nigerians to rely on diesel-fired backup generators.7 Rapid rollout of wind and solar capacity supported by international financing mechanisms and grid infrastructure development has the potential to meet increasing demand and dramatically improve energy access across the country.
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) targets 17 GW of total renewables capacity by 2030, including 8 GW of centralised solar capacity and 1.9 GW of decentralised solar PV and battery capacity.8 All analysed pathways show that Nigeria would need to reach at least 23 GW of total renewables capacity by 2030 (including 11 GW of installed solar capacity) to be 1.5°C compatible. This would require annual investments of around USD 3.8 bn until the end of the decade.
To support this rollout and the goal of universal energy access, Nigeria would need to significantly upgrade its grid infrastructure. While this analysis only considers investments in renewables capacity, Nigeria’s National Integrated Electricity Policy is targeting USD 122.2 bn in investments through to 2045 to address issues across the entire power sector.9 The national pathways analysed here show Nigeria requiring USD 124- 230 bn in total capacity investments between 2031-2040.
Significant efforts are also being made to improve energy access and increase investment in off-grid renewables. In collaboration with the UN, Nigeria established a USD 500m financing target to support the rollout of distributed renewable energy systems including rooftop solar and mini-grids.10
Nigeria's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nigeria
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
395
|
141 to
309
|
29 to
159
|
6 to
14
|
0 to
3
|
2045 to
2049
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-64 to
-22%
|
-93 to
-60%
|
-98 to
-96%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
75
|
29 to
76
|
6 to
39
|
1 to
3
|
0 to
1
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
25
|
24 to
70
|
60 to
93
|
96 to
99
|
97 to
99
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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