What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Nigeria’s power sector relied on fossil gas for about three-quarters of generation in 2019, with the remaining quarter supplied largely by hydropower with a minimal share of solar PV.1 Many Nigerians lack access to reliable electricity and use diesel-fired back-up generators.2
Nigeria's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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In the Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for rapid electrification to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system, fossil gas declines from 74% of generation in 2019 to 29% in 2030. By 2040, fossil gas is almost entirely phased out of the power mix, supplying under 3% of generation. Remaining generation is supplied by renewables (96%) and a small share of hydrogen (1%).
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan, however, aims to build out available fossil gas capacity in the power sector from 4 GW in 2020 to 14 GW by 2030, with 10 GW still operating in 2050.3 This is inconsistent with 1.5°C compatible pathways which show fossil gas falling substantially after 2030.
While the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway shows an increase in fossil gas generation by 2030, it is mostly phased out by 2045. This quick ramp up of gas followed by a phase out would result in asset stranding for fossil gas plants that are built then retired before the full economic lifetime of the plant. Any effort to meet Nigeria’s stated 2060 net zero target while investing in gas in the short term would therefore create a high risk of stranded assets that would burden the Nigerian economy.
Nigeria's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nigeria
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
389
|
141 to
309
|
29 to
159
|
6 to
34
|
0 to
16
|
2045 to
2056
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-64 to
-21%
|
-93 to
-59%
|
-98 to
-91%
|
-100 to
-96%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
74
|
29 to
76
|
6 to
39
|
1 to
7
|
0 to
3
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
26
|
24 to
70
|
60 to
93
|
92 to
99
|
93 to
99
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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