Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Unlike other large European countries (Germany, France, the UK and Spain), Italy does not have a national economy-wide emissions reduction target in addition to its contribution to the EU target. In March 2022, Italy’s Plan for the Ecological Transition (PITE) was adopted including a non-binding emissions reduction target by 2030 of 51% below the 1990 levels.¹

Italy’s final national energy and climate plan (NECP) sets a 2030 reduction target for GHG emissions not covered by the EU emissions trading system (non-ETS) at 33% below 2005 levels by 2030.² For the EU emissions trading system (ETS) sectors, we use the EU-wide target of a 43% reduction below 2005 levels to estimate Italy’s implied 2030 emissions reductions target which leads, in aggregate, to a reduction of total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) of 37% below 2005 levels by 2030 .³^,⁴ The target is likely to change through the ongoing negotiations on the Fit for 55 Package at the EU-level which is redefining EU Member State targets with Italy’s revised effort sharing regulation (ESR) target raised to 43.7% below 2005 levels (as opposed to 33% previously).

Italy’s implied 2030 emissions reductions target based on its integrated national energy and climate plan (NECP) results in 30% emissions reduction below 1990 levels excluding LULUCF. The 2021 Economic and Finance Document of the Finance Ministry shows an updated projection leading to higher reduction cuts than the NECP targets, equivalent to 49% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 and 42% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2030.⁵

In contrast, Italy should reduce GHG emissions by 61-71% below 1990 levels and reach 149-201 MtCO₂e by 2030 to be in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways. Italy would need to roughly double its targeted emissions reduction (compared to those outlined in its NECP) between now and 2030 to be aligned with 1.5°C pathways.

A full fair share contribution to reduce global GHG emissions that is compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Italy to go further than its domestic emissions target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Italy's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

As of June 2022, Italy has not yet submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC according to the 2020 deadline of the Paris Agreement and the 2021 G7 commitment to submit it by COP26.⁶ However, Italy has sent the EU Commission its long term strategy, published in 2021.⁷^,⁸

To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, Italy would need total greenhouse gas emissions to be in the range of –26 to 46 MtCO₂e (with a middle of the range of 33 MtCO₂e/yr) by 2050, excluding the contribution of LULUCF sinks, while CO₂ emissions would need to be almost completely phased out by then.⁹ In some scenarios, the country would already be net-negative. Our models show negative emissions need to be achieved in the energy sector. The Italian LTS sets outs that negative emissions in 2050 would be achieved mainly through carbon sinks in the LULUCF sectors, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and behavioural changes.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Italy needs to transform its energy sector (transport, electricity generation, buildings, and industries), which is dominated by fossil fuels (81% in 2019), and accounts for 80% of the country’s emissions, excluding land use.

Given its high reliance on imports for its energy needs, Italy needs to review its energy supply strategy to shift from the use of fossil fuels, in particular fossil gas, to renewable energy. According to the IEA, Italy’s renewables capacity is projected to increase by 17 GW to 2026, with solar comprising about 75% of this increase.¹⁰ To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the share of unabated fossil fuels would need to decline from its current level of more than 80% by more than half by 2040 and fall to 2-22% by 2050, with some fossil gas and oil remaining in the industry and transport sectors beyond 2050. The country’s energy mix would need renewable energy to account for at least 44% by 2050. The national target of a 30% renewable energy share of primary energy by 2030 lies at the lower bound of 1.5°C pathways, which require 30-52% of primary energy from renewables by 2030. Pathways with lower reliance on renewable energy see increasing reliance on fossil fuels with CCS. 1.5°C pathways show the deployment of negative emissions technology such as BECCS, starting from 2030, and reaching up to 14% by 2050 in the primary energy mix.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Italy. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	519	418	158 149 to 201	55 37 to 99	33 -26 to 46
Relative to reference year in %			-70% -71 to -61%	-89% -93 to -81%	-94% -105 to -91%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	438	339	130 106 to 165	29 7 to 67	1 -46 to 19	2052 2042 to 2059
Relative to reference year in %			-70% -76 to -62%	-93% -98 to -85%	-100% -111 to -96%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: EEA Greenhouse Gas Data Viewer (2021)
- Download data as CSV

Government of Italy. Plan for the Ecological Transition. 2021. ↩
Government of Italy. Italian Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan. 2019. ↩
European Commission. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Assessment of the final national energy and climate plan of Italy. 2020. ↩
See assumptions here: https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/methodology/#ita-ndc ↩
Ministry of the Economy and Finance of the Republic of Italy. Annex to the Economics and Finance Document 2021. 2021. ↩
Group of Seven. Carbis Bay G7 Summit Communiqué. GOV.UK. 2021. ↩
Government of Italy. STRATEGIA ITALIANA DI LUNGO TERMINE SULLA RIDUZIONE DELLE EMISSIONI DEI GAS A EFFETTO SERRA. 2021. ↩
European Commission. 2050 long-term strategy. 2021. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en. (Accessed: 18th May 2021) ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available, thus we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
IEA. Renewables 2021 Analysis and forecasts to 2026. 2021. ↩

What is Italy's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Italy's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Italy's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Italy's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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