What is Romania's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
Romania’s 2030 GHG emissions reduction target, estimated to reflect a 7% increase above 2005 levels, is insufficiently ambitious to align with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement, which requires 2030 emissions to be 58-63% below 2005 levels.
In its review of Romania’s NECP, the EU Commission criticised Romania’s lack of ambition in meeting its 2030 targets.1 In a range of areas, from energy efficiency to increasing the share of renewables, Romania is failing to meet the 2030 national targets recommended by the EU. Similarly, a lack of sectoral targets in critical sectors such as transport and agriculture mean that Romania could easily see an increase in emissions from these sectors.2
Romania's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Romania has no long-term target in place. To be 1.5°C compatible, Romania would need to reach emissions reductions of 88% below 1990 levels by 2040 (excl. LULUCF) and 94% below 1990 levels by 2050 (excl. LULUCF).
1.5°C scenarios show that remaining emissions in 2050 largely come from agriculture, which, together with waste, is responsible for almost all non-CO₂ emissions. Romania would need to balance its remaining emissions by mid-century through carbon dioxide removal approaches such as reforestation efforts and direct air capture.
Romania's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
As the energy sector is responsible for two-thirds of Romanian GHG emissions, ratcheting up the use of renewables is integral in any efforts towards achieving 1.5°C compatibility. Phasing out coal in the power sector would significantly reduce the emissions intensity of electricity and, through electrification of end-use sectors, support the decarbonisation of other sectors.
Alongside power, the transport sector is a considerable source of energy demand, yet Romania has not set an emissions reduction target for the sector. Instead, transport emissions are projected to increase under current policies.3 Romania ranks in the bottom five countries in the EU in relation to electric vehicle (EV) charging points per 100 km, indicating the Romanian government’s lack of policy intent regarding transport emissions.4 Rapidly upgrading EV infrastructure by rolling out public charging points, as part of a greater effort to increase the share of renewables in the transport sector, will be an important step towards decarbonising the energy system.
Romania's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Romania. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
1990
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
250
|
114
|
54
50 to
62
|
25
22 to
35
|
16
6 to
21
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-79%
-80 to
-75%
|
-90%
-91 to
-86%
|
-94%
-98 to
-92%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
173
|
76
|
39
29 to
44
|
13
4 to
21
|
0
-5 to
9
|
2053
2046 to
2066
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-78%
-83 to
-74%
|
-92%
-98 to
-88%
|
-100%
-103 to
-95%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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