What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
In 2022, Viet Nam sourced 40% of its electricity from coal and 11% from gas.1 A 1.5°C compatible transition would require a rapid phase out of fossil fuels from the power system.
Viet Nam's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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Viet Nam possesses remarkable potential in solar and wind energy.2 Although renewable sources represented 49% of the power mix in 2022, the majority came from hydropower.3
The significant leap in solar capacity, from almost none in 2017 to 16.7 GW in 2021 and 18.7 GW in 2024, sets a precedent for the scalability of solar and wind energy in the country, but harnessing this potential will require further development of grid infrastructure.4
Across all 1.5°C compatible pathways, renewables account for over 90% of the power mix in 2030 and reach at least 99% by 2040. Coal is phased out by 2035 at the latest, and by 2030 in the Deep Electrification pathway. Gas is phased out between 2035-2040.
Viet Nam lacks a fossil gas phase out plan and instead intends to increase the share of gas in the power mix to accompany its gradual reduction of coal, a strategy inconsistent with 1.5°C compatible pathways. Seeing gas as a transition fuel comes with a high risk of stranded assets and locks the country into a carbon-intensive pathway.5 The April 2025 revision of the Power Development Plan VIII, partly to address delays in fossil gas infrastructure, was a missed opportunity to prioritise renewables deployment at the expense of fossil fuel-fired generation.6
Viet Nam's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Major investments would be required to scale up Viet Nam’s electricity system in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways. Under the Deep Electrification pathway, over USD 14 bn is invested towards renewables annually between 2026-2030 to enable the phase-out of coal, followed by USD 11 bn per year between 2031-2040. Most of these investments go to wind, reflecting the government’s halt on utility-scale PV investments.7 In the Deep Electrification pathway, total renewables capacity reaches 160 GW by 2030, including 48 GW of wind power, and further increases to a total of 371 GW by 2040.
Across all pathways, investments between 2026 and 2030 average USD 12 bn annually, slightly below the total USD 15.5 bn committed by the Just Energy Transition Plan. This allows for the early retirement of fossil fuel capacity, the meeting of rising power demand — year-on-year electricity consumption grew by 10% in 2024 — and fuel switching for end users.8 By contrast, in a scenario aligned with the government’s 2023 Power Development Plan VIII, investments in renewables would ramp up more gradually, from a projected USD 3.5 bn in 2025 to USD 20 bn annually by 2030, reaching 66 GW of installed capacity by the end of the decade.9
These figures exclude costs related to storage and grid modernisation. The latter is needed to handle high renewable penetration, and to address current electricity supply disruptions described as a “bottleneck to economic growth”.10
Viet Nam's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
508
|
21 to
47
|
3 to
8
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
2035 to
2038
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-96 to
-91%
|
-99 to
-98%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
40
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
11
|
3 to
9
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
49
|
90 to
95
|
97 to
99
|
99 to
100
|
99 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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