What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
In 2019, Viet Nam sourced 50% of its electricity from coal and 18% from gas. A 1.5°C compatible transition would require a rapid phase out of fossil fuels from the power system.
Viet Nam possesses remarkable potential in solar and wind energy.1 Although renewable sources represented 31% of the power mix in 2019, the majority came from hydropower.2
The significant leap in solar capacity, from almost none in 2017 to 16.7 GW in 2021, sets a precedent for the scalability of solar and wind energy in the country.3 Harnessing this potential will require developing grid infrastructure. Under the 1.5°C compatible Deep Electrification pathway, coal would be phased out by 2030 and gas by 2035, with renewables reaching 95% of the power mix by 2030.
Viet Nam's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all 1.5°C compatible pathways, renewables account for over 90% of the power mix in 2030 and exceed 99% by 2040. Coal is phased out around 2030 and gas between 2035-2040. Viet Nam lacks a fossil gas phase out plan and instead intends to increase the share of gas in the power mix to accompany its gradual reduction of coal, a strategy inconsistent with 1.5°C compatible pathways. Seeing gas as a transition fuel comes with a high risk of stranded assets and locks the country into a carbon-intensive pathway.4
Viet Nam's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
650
|
1 to
47
|
0 to
8
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
2025 to
2038
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-100 to
-93%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
50
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
18
|
0 to
9
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
31
|
90 to
99
|
97 to
99
|
99 to
100
|
99 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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