What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Viet Nam’s emissions are growing at a rapid rate, reaching 469 MtCO2e in 2022 (excluding LULUCF) amid strong economic growth.1

61% of Viet Nam’s emissions (excluding LULUCF) come from the energy sector. 91% of energy emissions come from the power, transport and industry sectors, underlining the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels from these sectors.2

Agriculture and industrial processes accounted for 17% and 16% respectively of overall emissions (excluding LULUCF). Industrial process emissions nearly tripled between 2010 and 2022, driven by cement, steel and ammonia production – industries with high decarbonisation potential.3, 4The waste sector accounts for 5% of Viet Nam’s emissions.5

With a forecasted GDP growth of 6.5-7.5% per year until 2050,6 the Vietnamese Government will need to balance economic development, energy security and climate action to set itself on a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

Viet Nam's 2022 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Viet Nam’s energy supply continues to be dominated by fossil fuels. Coal accounted for 45% of energy supply in 2022, while oil and fossil gas had shares of 27% and 7%, respectively.7

Given its dominant share of overall emissions, the energy sector will play a key role in Viet Nam’s decarbonisation. However, recent fossil fuel developments have directed the country further away from a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Viet Nam has 4 GW of coal power capacity currently under construction, locking the country into a carbon-intensive pathway with a high risk of stranded assets.8

The commitment towards a coal phase out by 2050 included in the Power Development Plan VIII – and accelerated by the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) – is dimmed by the government's move to escalate fossil gas power generation through LNG imports, locking in dependence on harmful fossil fuels and increasing reliance on volatile international markets.9 At present, 50 GW of oil and gas capacity are currently at various stages of development.10

Viet Nam boasts vast technical renewable energy potential, identified as close to 2 TW by the government.11 Hydroelectric sources contributed 8% of its total energy supply in 2022 while solar and wind constituted 3%, following the solar PV rollout from 2017 to 2021.12,13 By exploiting its potential, Viet Nam can set itself on track to 1.5°C compatibility.

Targets and commitments

Unconditional target in 2022 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • 15.8% reduction below a business-as-usual scenario in 2030.14

When excluding LULUCF, Viet Nam’s target translates to:

  • An increase of 151% above 2015 levels by 2030, to 878 MtCO2e.15

Conditional target in 2022 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • 43.5% reduction below a business-as-usual scenario in 2030.16

  • When excluding LULUCF, Viet Nam’s target translates to:
    79% above 2015 levels by 2030, or 629 MtCO2e.17

Long-term target

As formulated by the country:

  • Net zero by 2050.18

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