What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Viet Nam’s emissions are growing at a rapid rate, reaching 447 MtCO2e in 2019 (excluding LULUCF), amid strong economic growth.

63% of Viet Nam’s emissions (excluding LULUCF) come from the energy sector. 88% of energy emissions come from the power, transport and industry sector, underlining the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels from these sectors.

Agriculture and industrial processes accounted for 17% and 15% respectively of overall emissions (excluding LULUCF). While agriculture emissions decreased by 8% between 2010 and 2019, industry emissions rose by 163% in the same timeframe, driven by cement, steel and ammonia production – industries with high decarbonisation potential.1 The waste sector accounts for 5% of Viet Nam’s emissions.2

With a forecasted GDP growth of 6.5-7.5% per year until 2050,3 the Vietnamese Government will need to balance economic development, energy security and climate action to set itself on a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

Viet Nam's 2019 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Viet Nam’s energy supply continues to be dominated by fossil fuels. Coal, responsible for half of power generation and industry energy demand, accounted for 49% of energy supply in 2019, while oil and fossil gas had shares of 26% and 9% respectively.4

Given its dominant share of overall emissions, the energy sector will play a key role in Viet Nam’s decarbonisation. However, recent fossil fuel developments have set the country further away from a 1.5°C compatible pathway. 4 GW of coal power capacity are still at the pre-construction stage, while 5.4 GW are currently under construction, locking the country into a carbon-intensive pathway with high risk of stranded assets.5

The commitment towards a coal phase out included in the Eighth National Power Development Plan, to be accelerated by the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), 6 is dimmed by the government's move to escalate fossil gas power generation through LNG imports, locking in dependence on harmful fossil fuels and increasing reliance on volatile international markets. 44 GW of oil and gas capacity are currently at the pre-construction stage.6,7

Viet Nam boasts vast renewable energy potential. Hydroelectric sources contributed 6% of its total energy supply in 2019.7 Although solar and wind constituted less than 1% of primary energy that year, their contribution has grown in recent years thanks to significant solar PV rollout from 2017 to 2021.8 By building on this momentum, Viet Nam can set itself on track to 1.5°C compatibility.

Targets and commitments

Unconditional NDC target:

  • As expressed by the country:
    15.8% reduction below a business-as-usual scenario in 2030.9

  • Re-affirmed, excluding LULUCF:
    162% above 2015 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).10

Conditional NDC target:

  • As expressed by the country:
    43.5% reduction below a business-as-usual scenario in 2030.11

  • Re-affirmed, excluding LULUCF:
    88% above 2015 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).12

Sector Coverage:

  • Agriculture, Waste, Industry (processes), Energy, LULUCF

Long-term target:

  • Net zero by 2050.13

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