What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
CO2 emissions in the transport sector were 44 MtCO2 in 2019, a 40% increase compared to 2010, driven by the rise in vehicle ownership.1 Oil makes up over 99% of the transport energy mix. Our analysis shows that the integration of electric vehicles (EVs) with the deployment of railways and low carbon fuels like biomass and green hydrogen gradually pushes out oil from the system.
Viet Nam's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Sustainable Consumption pathway focuses on rapidly achieving sustainable development goals while promoting less resource-intensive lifestyles. If Viet Nam follows this pathway, the share of electricity and green hydrogen in the transport energy mix are expected to rise to 16% by 2040 and 37% by 2050. Transport energy consumption decreases by 16% by 2050. Electrification, the use of alternative fuels and a decrease in energy consumption lead transport energy emissions to drop to 32% below 2019 levels by 2040 and 69% by 2050.
The Deep Electrification pathway shows a faster transition, with reduced supply risks related to hydrogen production. Electrification would reach 17% by 2030, 50% by 2040, and 72% by 2050. Despite transport energy demand rising by 37% between 2019 and 2050, emissions could be reduced by 59% if this pathway is followed.
Viet Nam's government has recently implemented policies aimed at advancing the sector’s decarbonisation, with the objective of using only electricity and green energies for transportation by 2050.2 Viet Nam's abundant domestic metal resources position the country as a strong competitor in the electric vehicle supply chain.3 The implementation of adequate incentives for modal shifts and vehicle switching, such as measures for the development and use of public transports and subsidies for EVs and electric two-wheelers, can further accelerate the transport sector transition, which in turn would lead to reduced air pollution and improved health outcomes.
Viet Nam's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
44
|
35 to
48
|
35 to
44
|
25 to
31
|
11 to
18
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-20 to
9%
|
-20 to
0%
|
-43 to
-30%
|
-75 to
-59%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
17
|
4 to
30
|
9 to
50
|
25 to
72
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
16
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
6
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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