What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

The Deep Electrification pathway shows the fastest electrification of transport, with reduced supply risks related to hydrogen production. Electrification would reach 17% by 2030, 50% by 2040, and 72% by 2050. Despite transport energy demand rising by 36% between 2022 and 2050, emissions could be reduced by 59% if Viet Nam aligns with this pathway.

While the Deep Electrification pathway displaces oil from the transport sector primarily through rapid electrification, the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway instead achieves this through reduced final energy demand. Although electricity would make up only 2% of the energy mix in 2030, final energy demand would fall by 12%. By 2050, a combination of electrification, hydrogen and biofuels would account for 46% of the mix. Meanwhile, final energy demand remains slightly lower than 2022 levels.

Viet Nam's government has implemented policies aimed at advancing the sector’s decarbonisation, with the objective of using only electricity, hydrogen and biomass for transportation by 2050.³3 Current policies lack the necessary ambition to align with the Paris Agreement’s goal.⁴4 The 2024 transport strategy sets out specific mitigation measures, yet these would cause sectoral emissions to rise by 79% above 2022 levels by 2030 (AR4), diverging from 1.5°C compatible pathways.⁵5

Viet Nam's abundant domestic metal resources position the country as a strong competitor in the EV supply chain.⁶6 The implementation of adequate incentives for modal shifts and vehicle switching, such as measures for the development and use of public transports and subsidies for EVs and electric two-wheelers, can further accelerate the transport sector transition, which in turn would lead to reduced air pollution and improved health outcomes.