What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Viet Nam's 2022 unconditional NDC target aims to reduce its emissions by 15.8% below the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030. The conditional NDC target strengthens 2030 emissions reductions to 43.5% below BAU levels, contingent on international support. Reaching the conditional NDC would result in the country increasing its emissions by 88% above its 2015 levels.1,2
Viet Nam’s conditional target is not 1.5°C compatible. To align with the 1.5°C temperature limit, our analysis shows that Viet Nam’s emissions would need to decrease by 13% below 2015 levels by 2030 and decrease by 27% below 2015 levels by 2035. Under current policies, Viet Nam would fall short of these targets, emphasising the need for faster climate action, in particular in the power and industry sectors.3
Viet Nam's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long-term pathway
At COP26, Viet Nam committed to reach net zero emissions by 2050.4 Paris Agreement compatible pathways indicate that the country's GHG emissions should reach 86-121 MtCO2e by 2050, excluding LULUCF, representing a reduction of 63-74% below 2015 levels. Getting to net zero will necessitate the deployment of land sinks or other carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches.
The 185 MtCO2e emissions target outlined in the National Climate Change Strategy, to be compensated through CDR and LULUCF sequestration, falls short of the emissions reductions required for 1.5°C compatibility.5,6 However, as noted in the strategy, reaching the cap will require a transition away from fossil fuels and improvements in energy efficiency.
Viet Nam's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Viet Nam. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2010
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
277
|
435
|
214 to
337
|
175 to
271
|
144 to
212
|
86 to
121
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-23 to
22%
|
-37 to
-2%
|
-48 to
-23%
|
-69 to
-56%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
128
|
247
|
75 to
160
|
50 to
127
|
12 to
83
|
-23 to
19
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-41 to
25%
|
-61 to
-1%
|
-91 to
-35%
|
-118 to
-85%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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