What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Viet Nam's 2022 unconditional NDC target aims to reduce its emissions by 15.8% below a business-as-usual scenario by 2030, including LULUCF (AR4).
The conditional NDC target strengthens 2030 emissions reductions to 43.5% below business-as-usual levels, including LULUCF and contingent on international support (AR4). This is equivalent to 71% above 2015 levels, including LULUCF.1,2
Viet Nam’s conditional target is not 1.5°C compatible. To align with the 1.5°C temperature limit, our analysis shows that Viet Nam’s emissions would need to decrease by 12% below 2015 levels by 2030, and by 34% below 2015 levels by 2035, including LULUCF. Excluding emissions reductions from the LULUCF sector, emissions must fall to at least 7% above 2015 levels by 2030 and then decline by at least 14% below 2015 levels by 2035. Under current policies, Viet Nam would fall short of these targets, emphasising the need for faster climate action, in particular in the power and industry sectors.3
Viet Nam's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
At COP26, Viet Nam committed to reach net zero emissions by 2050.4 Paris Agreement compatible pathways indicate that the country's GHG emissions should reach 129 MtCO2e by 2050 excluding LULUCF, representing a reduction of 63% below 2015 levels. Getting to net zero will necessitate the deployment of land sinks or other carbon dioxide removal approaches.
The 185 MtCO2e 2050 emissions target outlined in the National Climate Change Strategy, to be compensated through carbon dioxide removal and LULUCF sequestration to reach the net-zero goal the government committed to in 2021, falls short of the emissions reductions required for 1.5°C compatibility.5,6 However, as noted in the strategy, reaching the cap will require a transition away from fossil fuels and improvements in energy efficiency.
Viet Nam's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Viet Nam. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
351
|
534
|
242 to
377
|
202 to
302
|
135 to
227
|
80 to
129
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-31 to
7%
|
-42 to
-14%
|
-62 to
-35%
|
-77 to
-63%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
182
|
332
|
105 to
185
|
55 to
138
|
13 to
96
|
-25 to
21
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-42 to
2%
|
-70 to
-24%
|
-93 to
-47%
|
-114 to
-88%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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