What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Emissions from transport in Türkiye have risen almost threefold from about 28 MtCO₂e in 1990 to about 84 MtCO₂e in 2019. Oil accounts for a 99% share of the sector’s energy mix, with the remaining 1% covered by electricity.
Türkiye's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Türkiye would need to reduce its transport CO₂ emissions by 46%–66% by 2030, from 2019 levels, and reach close to zero emissions by 2050. The pathways analysed here show that the reduction will be driven by increasing the share of electricity in the sector’s energy mix to 4%–18% by 2030 and 36%–49% by 2050, with biofuels playing a small role.
Türkiye’s 2053 Transport and Logistics Master Plan includes investments worth about USD 200 million into the expansion of the existing transport infrastructure, with the largest amount to be spent on rail infrastructure.1 The government’s target for a modal shift includes increasing the share of rail in passenger transport from less than 1% in 2019 to over 6% in 2053 and in domestic freight transport from 3% in 2019 to almost 22% in 2053.
However, Türkiye has not yet fixed a date for the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles, nor has the government established targets for the electrification of road transport. Without concrete electrification targets, Türkiye risks locking in a carbon intensive pathway in the transport sector.
Türkiye's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Türkiye
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
84
|
29 to
45
|
21 to
24
|
0 to
11
|
2049 to
2070
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-66 to
-46%
|
-75 to
-71%
|
-99 to
-86%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
4 to
18
|
15 to
34
|
36 to
49
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
1
|
1 to
2
|
5 to
6
|
11 to
16
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
14
|
18 to
47
|
48 to
49
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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