What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Under 1.5°C aligned pathways, renewable energy’s share of total power generation in Türkiye would need to reach up to 86% by 2030. Renewable energy already made up 44% of the country’s total power generation in 2019, up from 29% just two years earlier, demonstrating that a rapid transition to renewables is possible.1
While gas-fired power generation was cut in half between 2019 and 2014, it has been rising again in the past two years. Under a 1.5°C compatible pathway, fossil gas-fired power generation needs to decline to 8–13% by 2030 and phase out late 2030’s.
However, the government plans to partly replace the electricity from fossil gas-fired power generation with new coal capacity. This is incompatible with the 1.5°C limit which requires a coal phase-out by 2035.
Türkiye's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The emissions intensity of the power sector would need to be cut by at least 80% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. The emissions intensity should be no more than 80 gCO₂/kWh in 2030 and near zero around 2040.
With an enormous potential for wind and solar development, Türkiye is well positioned to reach 100% renewables-based power generation by 2040 in line with its 1.5°C compatible pathways. A high renewable energy share could limit or completely eliminate the need for carbon removal technologies. This is demonstrated by one analysed pathway that shows an 86% share of renewable energy in the power mix in 2030, reaching 100% in 2050, with no need for carbon removals in subsequent decades.
Türkiye's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Turkey to be on the order of USD 7 to 20 billion by 2030 and 9 to 25 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Türkiye's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Türkiye
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
428
|
75 to
85
|
-59 to
0
|
-66 to
-4
|
2038 to
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-83 to
-80%
|
-114 to
-100%
|
-115 to
-101%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
37
|
3 to
6
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
19
|
8 to
13
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2037 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
44
|
84 to
86
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
56
|
14 to
16
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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