What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Last update: 3 December 2024

Emissions profile

Türkiye’s GHG emissions rose by 155% between 1990 and 2021, reaching 564 MtCO2e in 2021 (excluding LULUCF).1 The energy sector is responsible for 72% of emissions excluding LULUCF, meaning that decarbonising energy will be critical to bringing Türkiye in line with 1.5°C.2

The power sector accounts for the largest share of energy emissions (28%), followed by transport (16%), buildings (13%), and energy use in industry (12%). Aside from energy use, industrial process emissions – mostly driven by the cement industry and agriculture – both account for 13% of economy-wide emissions, respectively. For now, the LULUCF sector is a net sink, removing 47 MtCO2e in 2021.

Although Türkiye has set a net zero emissions target for 2053, according to its NDC Türkiye would allow absolute emission levels to continue rising until 2038.3 A course correction is needed to bring down emissions in line with Paris Agreement compatible pathways.

Türkiye's 2021 GHG emissions

including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Türkiye’s energy mix remains dependent on fossil fuels, which made up 81% of the overall energy supply in 2021.4 Oil accounts for the largest share of the mix at 29%, followed by gas (27%) and coal (25%). The remaining supply is provided by wind and solar (12%), hydro (4%) and biofuels/waste (3%).5

Türkiye is the fastest-growing energy consumer among OECD countries. Globally, it is second only after China.6 Meeting this growing energy demand sustainably will be critical to maintaining economic growth while aligning with 1.5°C.

In this regard, Turkish energy policy is a mixed bag. On the positive end, the government plans to bring 120 GW of wind and solar capacity online by 2035 and invest USD 20 billion in energy efficiency measures between 2024-2030.7,8,9,10 However, coal use has risen since 2021, fossil fuel imports remain high and 270 oil and gas drilling operations are planned for 2025.11,12,13,14

Türkiye also intends to expand its nuclear capacity to 7.2 GW by 2035, or around 4% of total installed capacity.15 Construction of the 4.8 GW Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is almost finished, and the plant is expected to start supplying energy in 2025.16

Targets and commitments

Target in 2023 NDC:

  • As expressed by the country: 41% below business as usual (BAU) by 2030. This equates to 695 MtCO2e (incl. LULUCF) in 2030.17,18

  • When excluding LULUCF, Türkiye’s target equates to 765 MtCO2e, or 61% above 2015 levels by 2030.

  • Türkiye states that it “needs significant international financial support for its climate-friendly technical assistance and investment projects to implement its NDC and realise its increased ambition in mitigation and adaptation actions.”19 However, it does not specify what portion of its 2030 target relies on international support to be met.

Long-term target

  • Türkiye intends to achieve net zero by 2053.20

  • Türkiye released its long-term strategy at COP29, where it reiterates that it “aims to reach a peak in greenhouse gas emissions by 2038 at the latest, after which emissions will gradually decline, with the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2053.”21

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