What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Türkiye’s GHG emissions rose by 143% between 1990 and 2022, reaching 558 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF).1,2 The energy sector has driven this trend and is responsible for 72% of emissions excluding LULUCF, meaning that decarbonising energy will be critical to bringing Türkiye in line with 1.5°C.3
The power sector accounts for the largest share of energy emissions (26% of total emissions), followed by transport (16%), buildings (12%), and energy use in industry (14%). Aside from energy use, industrial process emissions – mostly driven by the cement industry – and agriculture both account for 13% of economy-wide emissions, respectively.
The LULUCF sector is a net sink, removing 56 MtCO2e in 2022, bouncing back to pre-2021 levels. In 2021, massive wildfires ripped through Türkiye’s forests, releasing significant emissions and impacting the sector’s absorption capacity. Severe wildfires also occurred in 2024 and 2025.4
Although Türkiye has set a net zero emissions target for 2053, medium-term policies see a large increase in economy-wide emissions.5 A course correction is needed to bring emissions in line with Paris Agreement compatible pathways.
Türkiye's 2022 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Türkiye’s energy mix remains dependent on fossil fuels, which made up 83% of the overall energy supply in 2022.
Over-reliance on fossil fuel imports has exposed Türkiye to volatile fossil fuel markets, stimulating a turn to domestic energy resources to improve energy security and reduce Türkiye’s significant fossil fuel import bill, which amounted to USD 66 bn in 2024.6,7 Nevertheless, this is USD 12 bn less than it otherwise would have been due to installed wind and solar capacity.8
Türkiye’s Renewable Energy Roadmap aims to roll out wind and solar at a rate of 7.5-8 GW/yr until 2035. This would see wind and solar levels quadruple compared to 2023 levels to an installed capacity of 120 GW.9 This is being combined with USD 20 bn in investments to improve energy efficiency by 16% by 2030.10
Despite progress in expanding wind and solar capacity, the Turkish government continues to finance fossil fuels. It is the largest producer of coal-fired electricity in Europe and is pouring money into oil and gas drilling.11,12 Such support for the fossil fuel industry runs counter to Paris Agreement principles and recent developments in international law.13
Renewables and electrification of end-use sectors present a strategic opportunity to reduce dependency on energy imports and global price volatilities. Financing fossil fuels, however, maintains the risk of stranded assets as renewables costs continue to fall.
Targets and commitments
Türkiye submitted its NDC 3.0 on 9 November 2025. Full analysis, including values which are directly comparable to our pathways, is underway.
2035 target in 2025 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- Türkiye aims to reduce its GHG emissions by 466 Mt CO₂ eq. compared to the BAU scenario, limiting GHG emissions to 643 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2035.14
2030 target in 2023 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
When excluding LULUCF:
- Türkiye’s 2030 target equates to 768 MtCO2e, or 60% above 2015 levels by 2030.17
Long-term target
As formulated by the country:
- Türkiye intends to achieve net zero by 2053.18 The government does not specify whether this is net zero CO2 or net zero GHGs.