What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Across all 1.5°C compatible pathways, CO2 emissions from industrial energy use drop as the sector electrifies. 1.5°C compatible pathways show that industrial energy demand could be decarbonised between 2048-2053. The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for electrification due to declining costs of renewables, sees an increase in electricity combined with the deployment of hydrogen. Under this pathway, hydrogen, biomass and largely renewable-based electricity reach a share of 61% by 2030 in the industry energy mix, and 78% by 2050.
Türkiye's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Process-related emissions would follow a similar reduction under 1.5°C pathways, being about halved by 2030 from 73 MtCO2e in 2021. Türkiye plans to rely heavily on carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) technologies. For instance, of the estimated USD 29.8 bn needed to decarbonise the cement sector, USD 27 bn will be spent on CCUS.1 CCUS technologies are extremely expensive and unproven at scale, and over-reliance on this technology is risky. Substituting clinker with low-carbon alternatives and optimising production processes should also be integrated as part of a holistic approach to reducing process emissions from the cement industry.
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will likely impact Turkish industry significantly. It is essential that Turkish manufacturers cut the carbon intensity of their production to maintain export competitiveness.2 Some Turkish businesses in CBAM-covered sectors are taking the lead by investing in renewable energy to power their production processes.3 Learning from these cases can allow the government to roll out proven good practices across the economy, protecting Turkish growth from CBAM-related shocks.
Türkiye's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Türkiye's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Türkiye
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
77
|
23 to
31
|
15 to
23
|
12 to
16
|
5 to
12
|
2048 to
2053
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-70 to
-60%
|
-81 to
-70%
|
-84 to
-79%
|
-94 to
-84%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
31
|
39 to
51
|
47 to
54
|
46 to
57
|
48 to
68
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
31
|
49 to
61
|
60 to
70
|
63 to
73
|
69 to
86
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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