What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
The industry sector accounted for a quarter of Türkiye’s overall emissions, with this share split between energy use (14%) and industrial processes (13%) Process-related emissions predominantly come from the cement and iron and steel industries, with cement in particular a leading cause of process emissions.1 1.5°C compatible pathways show that the sector could be decarbonised between 2048–2053.
Türkiye's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all 1.5°C compatible pathways, CO2 emissions from industrial energy use, which were 84 MtCO2 in 2022, drop to 23–31 MtCO2 by 2030 driven by energy efficiency measures and a renewables rollout.
The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for electrification due to declining costs of renewables, sees an increase in electricity combined with the deployment of hydrogen. Under this pathway, hydrogen, biomass and renewable-based electricity reach a share of 61% by 2030 in the industry energy mix, and 78% by 2050.
Process-related emissions also see deep cuts under 1.5°C pathways, being about halved by 2030 from 71 MtCO2e in 2023.
To bring Türkiye’s industry sector in line with 1.5°C, a range of decarbonisation policies will be needed. Türkiye has released a decarbonisation roadmap for its cement sector which is a step in the right direction, though it leans heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS) which is as yet unproven at scale.2 A strong focus on reducing clinker content is an effective strategy that can be implemented immediately,3 ensuring Türkiye’s cement industry remains competitive once the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is fully implemented.
In other industries, Türkiye can accelerate emissions reductions through mandated energy efficiency improvements along with subsidies to support meeting those mandates. Heat pumps and smart technologies can simultaneously reduce energy demand while enabling deeper electrification.4 On-site renewable projects near factories can generate electricity for self-consumption, with projects exceeding 1 GW already underway in Türkiye.5 A regulatory environment which allows companies to reap the full economic benefits of renewables, both for their own energy use as well as when selling electricity back to the grid, can unlock new sources of income for Turkish industry and increase their export competitiveness.
Türkiye's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Türkiye's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Türkiye
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
84
|
23 to
31
|
15 to
23
|
12 to
16
|
5 to
12
|
2048 to
2053
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-73 to
-63%
|
-82 to
-73%
|
-86 to
-81%
|
-94 to
-86%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
33
|
39 to
51
|
47 to
54
|
46 to
57
|
48 to
68
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
33
|
49 to
61
|
60 to
70
|
63 to
73
|
69 to
86
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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