Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

Türkiye intends to reduce emissions by 41% below business as usual by 2030.¹ This equates to 768 MtCO₂e, or 60% above 2015 levels, by 2030 (excl. LULUCF). Alignment with 1.5°C would require Türkiye to reduce its emissions to 330 MtCO₂e, or 31% below 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.

In September 2025, Türkiye announced a 2035 target of 643 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF).²

Türkiye’s 2030 target requires significant strengthening to be 1.5°C compatible. As a candidate country to host COP31, Türkiye can present itself as an international climate leader by increasing its NDC ambition.

Strong medium-term targets are critical to meeting Türkiye’s 2053 net zero target. As it stands, allowing emissions to continue to rise until 2038 before rapidly reducing out to 2053 is not a viable emissions reduction strategy. Delaying action in the short term will increase the costs of the transition and place excessive demand on future generations.

Türkiye's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Target Year

2030
2035

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker

Long term pathway

Türkiye aims to achieve net zero by 2053,³ but does not specify whether this covers all GHGs. Türkiye already benefits from a land sink of 56 MtCO₂e (2022). If this land sink is maintained, Türkiye’s net zero target would translate to 56 MtCO₂e/yr by 2053 excluding LULUCF.

To align with 1.5°C, Türkiye’s GHG emissions would not be higher than 92 MtCO₂e in 2050, or 81% below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF). Türkiye’s 2053 target is therefore broadly aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, pending additional details on the scope of the target. However, its pathways allow emissions to peak in 2038 and rely on deep emission reductions between 2038-2053. Achieving net zero in an orderly way involves cutting emissions immediately.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2024. Last inventory year: 2022.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Türkiye. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2023	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	480	555	284 to 330	197 to 260	116 to 170	48 to 92
Relative to reference year in %			-41 to -31%	-59 to -46%	-76 to -65%	-90 to -81%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	332	374	158 to 188	62 to 125	-7 to 64	-63 to -2
Relative to reference year in %			-52 to -43%	-81 to -62%	-102 to -81%	-119 to -101%
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	407
Relative to reference year in %
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	259
Relative to reference year in %

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Methodology
- How are emissions benchmarks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker
- Download data as CSV

Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change (MoEUCC), “Republic of Türkiye Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution.” ↩
Türkiye has not yet submitted its new NDC to the UNFCCC. Without complete details on the expected contribution of LULUCF, this target is not directly comparable to our 1.5ºC pathways, which are presented excluding the LULUCF sector. Full analysis, including a re-calculated target that is comparable to our pathways, will be made available pending submission of the new NDC. ↩
Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change (MoEUCC), “Republic of Türkiye Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution.” ↩

What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

Türkiye's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Türkiye's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Cookie settings

Statistics

Google