What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Türkiye’s NDC target would lead to emissions of 765 MtCO2e by 2030, or 61% above 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF).1 Although framed as 41% below business as usual (BAU) by 2030, the BUA scenario is heavily emissions-intensive.2 While Türkiye is currently on track to meet its NDC target,3 alignment with 1.5°C would require the country to make absolute reductions in its emissions to 312 MtCO2e, or 41% below 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF).
Türkiye’s 2030 NDC target requires significant strengthening. In 2025, the government is expected to produce a new 2035 target in line with the next NDC cycle, which would be an excellent opportunity to increase the ambition of its 2030 NDC. Delaying action in the short term will increase the costs of the transition and jeopardise the collective aim of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Strengthening Türkiye’s 2030 target will help realise both its 2035 target and its 2053 net zero target.
Türkiye's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Türkiye submitted its long-term strategy at COP29.4 The document provides a climate strategy to achieve its target of reaching net zero emissions by 2053. In a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Türkiye’s GHG emissions should not be higher than 85 MtCO2e in 2050, or 82% below 2015 levels, (excluding LULUCF).
Türkiye already benefits from a land sink of 47 MtCO2e (2021).5 According to its Fifth Biennial Report, Türkiye projects its land sink will increase to 70 MtCO2e/yr.6 If this sink is achieved and subsequently maintained, Türkiye’s net zero target would translate to 70 MtCO2e/yr by 2053 excluding LULUCF, which is broadly aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, pending additional details on the scope of the target.7
Türkiye's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Türkiye. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
475
|
564
|
282 to
312
|
191 to
250
|
111 to
158
|
38 to
85
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-41 to
-34%
|
-60 to
-47%
|
-77 to
-67%
|
-92 to
-82%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
332
|
381
|
158 to
191
|
62 to
126
|
-6 to
64
|
-62 to
-3
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-52 to
-42%
|
-81 to
-62%
|
-102 to
-81%
|
-119 to
-101%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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