What is Malaysia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Renewable energy accounted for 17% of the power mix in 2019. To be 1.5°C compatible, renewables need to take a 73-77% share of the power generation mix by 2030 and around 100% by 2040.
The power sector needs to phase out fossil fuels. Coal accounted for 46% of the power mix in 2019. Coal generation in the power sector has grown 86% between 2010 and 2018.1 The Generation Development Plan (2021-2039) intends to reduce coal capacity by 4.2 GW by 2029 although there is 2.8 GW of new coal fired capacity in the pipeline.2 To be 1.5°C compatible, Malaysia would need to phase out coal by 2035, requiring new planned plants to be scrapped, and current capacity retired within 14 years.
Gas represented 37% of the power mix in 2019. Gas would need to be phased out by 2035-2038 to be 1.5°C compatible. However, the Generation Development Plan plans to bring new gas plants online by 2029, four more plants by 2030, and more still post 2030.3
Malaysia's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The power sector could be fully decarbonised by around 2040. In 2019, the power emissions intensity was 660 gCO₂/kWh. A 1.5°C pathway would see this reduced to 140-170 gCO₂/kWh by 2030 and net negative up to –30 gCO₂/kWh by 2050.4
The decarbonisation of the power sector would be driven by the acceleration of renewable energy, as renewables would represent 100% of the power mix by 2040.
Focusing on renewable energy in the power sector would reduce the need to rely on negative emissions technology which are unproven at scale and costly.
A rapid acceleration of renewable energy uptake would require Malaysia to cancel gas plans and focus on scaling up the renewable energy and solar targets. As other sectors are electrified, demand side management in a whole of system approach can support the management of grid stability.
An additional option would be to upgrade the Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia interconnection to leverage renewable energy from other countries and support power system stability. The interconnection represents 1% of the capacity mix in 2021.5
Malaysia's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Malaysia to be on the order of USD 3 to 17 billion by 2030 and 5 to 30 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. . The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Malaysia's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Malaysia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
662
|
137 to
173
|
0 to
1
|
-26 to
0
|
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-79 to
-74%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-104 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
46
|
7 to
11
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
37
|
12 to
14
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2035 to
2038
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
17
|
73 to
77
|
99 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
83
|
23 to
27
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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