What is Zimbabwe's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Transport by road is the primary form of mobility for the majority of people in Zimbabwe, as well as for the distribution of goods around this land-locked country. Transport by rail, air, and boat (on dams and rivers) makes up a small percentage overall. The sector is completely dominated by fossil fuels, predominantly oil (94.5% in 2019) and biofuels (4.6%); there was no electricity in the mix in 2019. Transport emissions increased by 16% during the period 2000-2017.1 Even so, the small scale of the sector means it produces only 8% of the country’s GHG emissions.
Zimbabwe's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In conjunction with EVs, hydrogen is only mentioned once, in Zimbabwe’s 2019 LTS, and it appears with the provision of “feasible over the long-term with sufficient technical and financial support”. The LTS also models EV roll-out, but notes that the linked electricity demand projections have not been incorporated into the planning of the national power system.2 The more recent BUR and revised NDC make no mention of hydrogen.
In all the scenarios, the sector is close to fully decarbonised (less than 5 gCO₂/MJ) between 2034 and 2037. Decarbonisation of the sector will be mostly driven by electrification and increased share of biofuels in the fuel mix, reaching 7-27% by 2030 and 50-82% by 2030 respectively.
Zimbabwe's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Zimbabwe
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
3
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2034 to
2037
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-95 to
-93%
|
-100 to
-97%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
7 to
27
|
15 to
38
|
26 to
42
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
5
|
50 to
82
|
60 to
82
|
74 to
76
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
29
|
38 to
58
|
56 to
57
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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