What is Zimbabwe's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Zimbabwe’s power generation is mainly based on coal and renewable energy, each accounting for close to half of it (53% for coal and 47% for renewables in 2019). The renewable power is mostly hydropower generated by the Kariba dam. Other sources, to a much lower extent, include biofuels and biomass (like bagasse) and small grid connected solar systems.1 Deficits in meeting the demand is met with imports of power from South Africa (coal-generated), Mozambique (hydropower) and Zambia, as well as regular load shedding with knock-on effects on the economy.2
Analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways show the share of renewable energy in the power sector increasing from 47% in 2019 to 96-98% by 2030 and reaching 100% already by 2040. Fossil fuel share (solely coal) sees a drastic reduction to 0-3% by 2030. To achieve a 100% renewable energy-based power sector, Zimbabwe would need to abandon its expansion plans for the Hwange coal plant, as well as other smaller coal plants, and phase them out to avoid the risk of being locked into a carbon intensive pathway with costly stranded assets.3,4 Zimbabwe’s National Renewable Energy Policy (2019) contains a target to increase installed capacity of a range of renewable energy - excluding large hydro - from five percent in 2017 to 27% in 2030.5
Zimbabwe's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
-
Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
-
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The drive to make Zimbabwe’s power sector carbon neutral depends almost entirely on investment in renewables, the phasing out of coal and thermal power plants and eventually a reduction of its reliance on fossil fuel imports. The potential mitigation strategies in the power sector include options such as solar, micro-grids, and energy efficiency improvements.6 The updated NDC indicated, however, that building new hydropower installations would not be feasible “within the planning horizon in question [2030]”.7
Under 1.5°C pathways, a fully decarbonised power sector could be achieved between 2028 and 2035 with the renewable energy share rising to 100% by 2040 and coal phased out by 2030. Similarly, carbon intensity would need to decline from 810 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to between –230 to 30 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. While the updated NDC states that large hydro is not in the pipeline as its not feasible by 2030 (although identified in the 2019 LTS to have the potential to mitigate up to 75% of the sector’s total emissions by 2030, it will be key for the country to foster the development of variable renewables such as wind and solar.8,9
Zimbabwe's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Zimbabwe to be on the order of USD 0.2 to 1 billion by 2030 and 0.3 to 2 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Zimbabwe's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
-
Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
-
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Zimbabwe
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
810
|
-229 to
28
|
-284 to
-26
|
-141 to
-129
|
2028 to
2035
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-128 to
-97%
|
-135 to
-103%
|
-117 to
-116%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
52
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
47
|
96 to
98
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
53
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
-