What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Bangladesh
An energy sector compatible with 1.5°C can align with sustainable development goals
Bangladesh continues to rely on imported fossil fuels, which does not align with its long-term developmental goals nor 1.5°C compatible pathways. There is no clear plan in place to achieve the country's renewable energy targets and progress in this area has been minimal. This is concerning as overall energy demand is expected to grow significantly with improvement in developmental status.
Bangladesh's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Raising 2030 ambition is critical, but international support needed to meet 1.5°C-aligned pathways
Achieving 1.5°C-compatible pathways would see Bangladesh’s 2030 emissions (excluding LULUCF) rise by a maximum of 18% above 2012 levels. That involves pushing ambition well beyond its current conditional and unconditional NDC targets. To realise this, international support is crucial.
More renewables, less gas in a 1.5°C-aligned power sector
Fossil gas dominates power generation in Bangladesh, with coal use increasing. 1.5°C-aligned pathways show a gas phase out before 2070. Gas would be replaced by renewables, which reach 76-83% by 2040, up from the current level of less than 2%.