Current Situation

Last update: 28 May 2024

Emissions profile

Bangladesh’s total greenhouse gas emissions have steadily increased since 1990. Based on Bangladesh’s latest inventory, emissions increased 21% between 2013 and 2019, excluding LULUCF, reaching around 205 MtCO₂e.¹

The energy sector accounted for 55% of the country’s total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in 2019.² Bangladesh's energy sector is the single largest source of CO₂ emissions. This is predominantly fuelled by fossil gas, which constitutes 81% of electricity generation in 2019. Moreover, Bangladesh is increasingly reliant on coal for power generation.

Agricultural emissions constituted 31% of total emissions in 2019, with waste contributing a further 10% approximately. These primarily came from methane emissions from rice cultivation, animal digestion, manure, and poultry waste management.³

Bangladesh is set to advance from the group of least developed countries (LDCs) in 2026 and aims to achieve developed status by 2041. Given the pivotal role of energy and electricity in sustaining economic growth and infrastructure development, Bangladesh must plan how it will facilitate a sustainable socio-economic transition. Although Bangladesh updated its NDC in 2022 – pledging a 6.7% reduction below business-as-usual emission levels by 2030 – it will require greater ambition to align the country with 1.5°C-aligned pathways with international support (refer to the ambition gap section).

Graph description

Historical emissions per gas and per sector.

Data References
- Sectoral emissions: Bangladesh's First Biennial Update Report

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Energy demand in Bangladesh has increased by an average of 5.7% annually between 2010 and 2022.⁴ Bangladesh’s primary energy supply is dominated by fossil gas, accounting for 55% of total supply in 2021.⁵ Fossil gas contributed to around 81% of electricity generation in 2019.⁶ Bangladesh recently achieved 100% electricity access which has been a key driver of increased energy demand. However, currently electricity generation is heavily dependent on the imported fossil fuels and the country is facing massive power shortages due to price rise and volatility in the global energy market.⁷

Bangladesh is one of the few countries in Asia which is planning to increase its share of coal use in power generation. Although coal’s current share in the power mix is relatively low (around 14% in 2023), increases are anticipated with a further 12.5 GW of coal-fired power plants in the pipeline .⁸^,⁹ This expansion of coal capacity is will lock-in dependence on imported coal, further jeopardising Bangladesh’s energy security, as well as increasing GHG emissions.

Despite aiming for 10% of total electricity generation from renewable sources by 2020, the country has only achieved 1.5% as of 2022, including off-grid solar home systems.¹⁰

Economy-Wide Targets

Unconditional target from 2021 NDC:

As expressed by the country: 6.73% below business-as-usual levels by 2030.¹¹
When excluding LULUCF, Bangladesh’s unconditional NDC translates to: 381 MtCO₂e or 130% above 2012 levels by 2030 .

Conditional target from 2021 NDC:

As expressed by the country: 15.12% below business-as-usual by 2030.¹²
When excluding LULUCF, Bangladesh’s conditional NDC translates to: 320 MtCO₂e or 93% above 2012 levels by 2030.

Sector Coverage:

Agriculture, Waste, Industry (processes), Energy, LULUCF

Long-term target:

As of May 2024, Bangladesh has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.

Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change, “Bangladesh First Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,” June 2023 ↩
Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change, “Bangladesh First Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.” ↩
Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change, “Bangladesh First Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.” ↩
Enerdata, “Bangladesh Energy Information,” February 9, 2024 ↩
IEA, “World Energy Balances,” IEA, 2023 ↩
IEA, “World Energy Balances.” ↩
“Bangladesh Should Plan for Energy Security, Not Just Electricity Access,” 2023 ↩
Sudarshan Varadhan, Ashley Fang, and Sudarshan Varadhan, “Bangladesh’s 2023 Coal-Fired Power Output Tripled, Easing Shortages,” Reuters, January 3, 2024, sec. Energy ↩
Global Energy Monitor, “Bangladesh Dashboard,” Global Energy Monitor (blog), 2024 ↩
“Bangladesh Should Plan for Energy Security, Not Just Electricity Access”; Government of Bangladesh, “Integrated Energy and Power Sector Master Plan 2023,” 2023 ↩
In 2021 Bangladesh submitted an updated NDC with an unconditional emissions reduction target of 6.73% (27.53 MtCO2e/yr) below BAU levels by 2030, and a conditional target of 15% (61.9 MtCO₂e/yr) by 2030 which will lead to an increase in emissions of 126% above 2012 levels (unconditional) and 89% above 2012 levels by 2030 including LULUCF (conditional). The conditional reduction is in addition to the proposed reductions in the unconditional scenario. Compared to Bangladesh’s first NDC which only covered energy-related emissions from the power, transport and industry sectors, the updated NDC covers additional sectors following IPCC guidelines - energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) and waste. The broader coverage means that Bangladesh will reduce more emissions in absolute terms than what it promised under its first NDC even though the percentage change will remain almost the same. As the updated NDC does not explicitly mention the global warming potential (GWP) used, we use values as they are provided by the NDC. Our analysis is based on the GWP from the 4^th Assessment Report (AR4). ↩
Government of Bangladesh, “Bangladesh’s Updated NDC,” 2021 ↩

What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

Bangladesh's 2019 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Economy-Wide Targets

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