Current Situation

Emissions profile

Bangladesh’s total greenhouse gas emissions have steadily increased since 1990. Based on Bangladesh’s latest inventory, emissions increased by 22% between 2013 and 2019, reaching 222 MtCO₂e, including LULUCF.¹

The energy sector accounted for 52% of the country’s total GHG emissions in 2019.² This was predominantly fuelled by fossil gas, which constituted 81% of electricity generation in 2019. Moreover, Bangladesh is increasingly reliant on coal for power generation (20% of generation in 2024).³

Agricultural emissions made up 30% of total emissions in 2019. These were primarily methane emissions from rice cultivation, enteric fermentation and animal waste.⁴ Waste contributed a further 10% of emissions.

Bangladesh is set to advance from the group of least developed countries in 2026 and aims to achieve developed status by 2041. Given the pivotal role of energy and electricity in sustaining economic growth and infrastructure development, Bangladesh must plan how it will facilitate a sustainable socio-economic transition.

Due to ongoing political uncertainty in the country, with a high risk of both economic and policy instability, Bangladesh faces significant challenges in effectively implementing its climate commitments. Although Bangladesh submitted its 2035 target in 2025 – pledging a 6.39% reduction below business-as-usual emissions levels by 2035 – it will require greater ambition to align the country with 1.5°C aligned pathways (contingent on international support).

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Graph description

Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Data References
- Sectoral emissions: Bangladesh's First Biennial Update Report

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Energy demand in Bangladesh increased by an average of 5% annually between 2014 and 2024.⁵ Fossil fuels contributed around 85% of total energy supply in 2022, with fossil gas meeting 53% of total supply in 2022.⁶

Energy consumption has surged in recent years due to improvements in energy access. With domestic fossil gas production declining in recent years, imports of LNG have increased significantly from ~7.3% in FY2020 to ~25% by FY2025 (through January), around USD 5.3 billion.⁷^,⁸ This heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels has made the country vulnerable to volatility in global energy markets, leading to a substantial subsidy burden.⁹ Since 2020, oil-based power generation has more than doubled.¹⁰

Bangladesh is one of the few countries in Asia increasing its share of coal use in power generation. Coal has traditionally played a small role in Bangladesh’s power generation, contributing 1-2% between 2005-2020, but has since increased to 20% as of 2024 with annual growth of nearly 3%.¹¹ Further increases are anticipated with 5 GW of coal-fired power plants in the pipeline, from 1.8 GW in 2020.¹² This expansion of coal capacity risks lock-in dependence on imported coal, further jeopardising Bangladesh’s energy security, as well as increasing GHG emissions.

Bangladesh has set its renewable energy target, aiming for 20% generation by 2030, and 30% by 2041. The country previously set a target of 10% by 2020, though as of 2024 it has only achieved 1.5%.¹³^,¹⁴ Lack of a clear regulatory framework and legally binding targets, inadequate financial incentives and access to funding, and weak grid infrastructure create hurdles to deploying renewables.¹⁵ Moreover, bureaucratic hurdles and lengthy approval processes create additional inefficiencies.

Targets and commitments

In September 2025 Bangladesh submitted its NDC3.0, including new targets for 2035. Full analysis with values directly comparable to our pathways is underway and will be made available once complete.

Unconditional 2035 target from 2025 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

"Bangladesh will achieve a reduction of 26.74 MtCO₂eq, representing a 6.39% decrease from the business-as-usual (BAU) projections for 2035"¹⁶

Conditional 2035 target from 2025 NDC

As expressed by the country:

"Bangladesh will achieve a decrease of 58.23 MtCO₂eq (13.92%) by 2035 compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) baseline."

Unconditional 2030 target from 2021 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

6.73% below business-as-usual levels by 2030.¹⁷

When excluding LULUCF, Bangladesh’s unconditional 2021 NDC translates to:

396 MtCO₂e, or 122% above 2012 levels by 2030

Conditional 2030 target from 2021 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

15.12% below business-as-usual by 2030.¹⁸

When excluding LULUCF, Bangladesh’s conditional 2021 NDC translates to:

332 MtCO₂e, or 86% above 2012 levels by 2030

Long-term target

As of September 2025, Bangladesh has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.

Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change, “Bangladesh First Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.” 2023. ↩
Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change, “Bangladesh First Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.” ↩
Ember, “Electricity Data Explorer.” 2025, ↩
Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change, “Bangladesh First Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.” ↩
OurWorldinData, Bangladesh: How Much Energy Does the Country Consume Each Year? 2025. ↩
IEA, “Countries & Regions: Bangladesh.” 2025. ↩
Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), “Power and Energy Crisis in Bangladesh.” 2025. ↩
EnergyTransitionBD, “Bangladesh Spends 51 Times More on LNG Imports than on Gas Exploration.” 2025. ↩
Alam, Bangladesh Should Plan for Energy Security, Not Just Electricity Access. (IEEFA, 2023). ↩
IEA, “Countries & Regions: Bangladesh.” ↩
Ember, “Electricity Data Explorer.” ↩
Global Energy Monitor, “Bangladesh Dashboard.” 2024. ↩
Ember, “Electricity Data Explorer.” ↩
Power Division, The Renewable Energy Policy 2025. 2025. ↩
IEEFA, “Bangladesh’s Energy Policy Changes Raise More Questions than They Answer,” 2025. ↩
Government of Bangladesh, BANGLADESH'S THIRD NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (NDC 3.0). ↩
In 2021 Bangladesh submitted an updated NDC with an unconditional emissions reduction target of 6.73% (27.53 MtCO₂e/yr) below BAU levels by 2030, and a conditional target of 15% (61.9 MtCO₂e/yr) by 2030 which will lead to an increase in emissions of 126% above 2012 levels (unconditional) and 89% above 2012 levels by 2030 including LULUCF (conditional). The conditional reduction is in addition to the proposed reductions in the unconditional scenario. Compared to Bangladesh’s first NDC which only covered energy-related emissions from the power, transport and industry sectors, the updated NDC covers additional sectors following IPCC guidelines - energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) and waste. The broader coverage means that Bangladesh will reduce more emissions in absolute terms than what it promised under its first NDC even though the percentage change will remain almost the same. As the updated NDC does not explicitly mention the global warming potential (GWP) used, we use values as they are provided by the NDC. Our analysis is based on the GWP from the 5^th Assessment Report (AR5). ↩
Government of Bangladesh, Bangladesh’s Updated NDC. ↩

What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

Bangladesh's 2019 GHG emissions

including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Targets and commitments

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