What is Serbia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Serbia’s transport emissions increased by nearly 54% between 1990 and 2019, from 4.5 MtCO₂e to 6.9 MtCO₂e. The emissions growth is predominantly due to the fact that while transport volumes have increased, the sector has continued to rely primarily on internal combustion engine, powered by fossil fuels (97–98% oil in 2019). The remaining small part of the transport sector is powered by electricity.
Serbia's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways suggests that electrification should reach a 9–30% share by 2030 and 30–72% share by 2050.
The government’s Low Carbon Development Strategy envisages GHG emissions in the transport sector to reduce by 30–54% compared to 2005 by 2050,1 while the 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here show a fully decarbonised sector by around 2053.
Since 2021, the government subsidises the purchase of an electric vehicle by up to EUR 5,000 and a hybrid vehicle by up to EUR 3,500, and has increased the total budget dedicated for the subsidies in 2023.2,3
The modal split between road and rail transport in Serbia is uneven for passenger and freight. While about 12% of passenger-kilometres take place by rail transport, almost 47% of Serbia’s freight transport is conducted by rail.4 However, only a third of rail transport lines were electrified as of 2017.5 Serbia needs to invest more heavily into rail electrification, encourage a modal shift in transport by providing adequate rail connections for passengers, and incentivise uptake of EVs through more than just subsidies, including through building more charging infrastructure.
Serbia's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Serbia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
7
|
2 to
4
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
1
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-65 to
-37%
|
-80 to
-73%
|
-93 to
-89%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
1
|
9 to
30
|
22 to
61
|
30 to
72
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
8
|
6 to
36
|
19 to
47
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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