What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
In 2021, greenhouse gas emissions from industrial energy demand accounted for 10% of national emissions while emissions from industrial processes accounted for 6%.1 The industrial sector still relies on fossil fuels – largely fossil gas – for over half of its energy demand.
United States' energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here indicate the sector has significant potential for emissions reductions, with direct CO2 emissions from industrial energy demand falling 40–72% below 2021 levels by 2030 and 92–98% by 2050. Pathways show multiple different approaches to decarbonising the energy mix, including via high rates of electrification. Across all analysed pathways, industrial process emissions reduce rapidly to 2040, by about 88% below 2021 levels.
In the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, industry electricity demand more than doubles by 2050 while fossil fuels are essentially phased out. Most of the industry sector’s remaining energy needs are met by various forms of bioenergy and heat.
The Deep Electrification pathway relies more on reduced industrial energy demand (which can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements) and sees a higher deployment of hydrogen. In this pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions seen in wind and solar, fossil fuels are phased out of hydrogen production in North America by 2035. The level of hydrogen deployment in the Net Zero Commitments pathway would require significant investment as this technology is still in an early development stage.
While we do not assess fossil fuel industry emissions here, the US is the world’s largest producer of oil and fossil gas.2,3 Fugitive emissions as reported by the US accounted for an additional 5% of emissions according to the US’ national inventory; however, these may be an under-estimate.4
United States' industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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United States' GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United States
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
483
|
136 to
288
|
54 to
245
|
18 to
135
|
9 to
40
|
2038 to
2047
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-72 to
-40%
|
-89 to
-49%
|
-96 to
-72%
|
-98 to
-92%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
26
|
27 to
42
|
32 to
53
|
45 to
59
|
42 to
64
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
37
|
48 to
62
|
55 to
75
|
72 to
83
|
85 to
88
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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