What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Although greenhouse gas emissions have fallen overall since 2007, the US remains the second highest emitting country in the world, responsible for 6330 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF in 2021 or 13% of global emissions (5570 MtCO2e including LULUCF).1,2 The energy sector accounted for the majority of emissions at 82%, excluding LULUCF.3 Within the energy sector, transport and power generation had the largest contributions at 28% and 25% of total emissions, respectively.4 Power sector CO2 emissions have overall declined since the early 2000s, mostly driven by reductions in coal generation.5 On the other hand, transport CO2 emissions have remained stable.
The next highest emitting sector in the US is agriculture.6 Crop cultivation and livestock are important contributors to emissions from the sector, with emissions from both subsectors increasing substantially since 1990.
The LULUCF sector in the US removes more emissions than it generates, meaning it is a net sink. In 2021 alone, LULUCF was responsible for a net removal of 760 MtCO2e out of the atmosphere, equivalent to nearly half of US power sector emissions.
Under current policies, emissions are projected to continue falling.7 The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) includes several key measures to decarbonise the economy, such as investments in clean energy production and support for electric vehicle manufacturing and supply chains.8 However, President-elect Trump has announced his intent to roll back measures in the IRA.9
United States' 2021 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
In 2021, the US energy mix remained largely dependent on fossil fuels, which accounted for 82% of primary energy consumption.10 Oil made up the largest share at 36% of primary energy – mostly used for transport. Oil consumption has generally fallen since the early 2000s and is expected to continue falling as the electric vehicle market grows. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act aim to boost the adoption of electric vehicles and expand manufacturing and charging infrastructure.11,12
Meanwhile, consumption of fossil gas (34% of primary energy in 2021) has increased rapidly – mostly driven by demand in the power and industry sector. This has also contributed to a strong decline of coal consumption since 2008, falling from 24% to 12% of primary energy in 2021.13 Renewable energy has also increased in the power sector, generating 20% of electricity in 2021.
Targets and commitments
Target in 2021 NDC:
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As expressed by the country: 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030 (including LULUCF)14
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When excluding LULUCF, the US’ target translates to: 3790–4130 MtCO2e or 45–50% below 2005 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF)
Long-term target
- As formulated by the country: net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 205015