What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Although GHG emissions have fallen overall since 2007, the US remains the second highest emitting country in the world, responsible for 6348 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF; 5496 incl. LULUCF) or 13% of global emissions.1,2 The energy sector accounted for the majority of emissions at 82%, excluding LULUCF, accounting for nearly 97% of the United States’ total CO₂ emissions.3 The sector is a major source of methane (CH4), accounting for 40% of total CH4 emissions. Within the energy sector, transport and power generation had the largest contributions at 28% and 24% of total emissions, respectively.4 Power sector CO2 emissions have generally declined since the early 2000s, mostly driven by reductions in coal generation. However, the Trump administration aims to prolong coal power generation, potentially reversing declines in emissions.5 On the other hand, transport CO2 emissions have remained stable.
The next highest emitting sector in the US is agriculture, responsible for 9% of overall emissions.6 Crop cultivation and livestock are important contributors to emissions from the sector, with emissions from both subsectors increasing substantially since 1990. Livestock alone account for 27% of total US CH4 emissions in 2022.
The LULUCF sector in the US removes more emissions than it generates, meaning it is a net sink. In 2022, the LULUCF sector accounted for a net removal of 854 MtCO2e, equivalent to nearly half of US transport sector emissions.
Emissions trajectories under current policies are highly uncertain.7 The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act included several key measures to decarbonise the economy, such as investments in clean energy production and support for electric vehicle manufacturing and supply chains.8 However, the United States’ exit from the Paris Agreement,9 significant rollbacks of funding,10 environmental protection deregulation11,12 and major reductions in staffing of key agencies13 under the Trump administration place significant uncertainty around not only further implementation of the Act, but American climate and environmental policy as a whole.14
United States' 2022 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
In 2022, the US energy mix remained largely dependent on fossil fuels, which accounted for 82% of primary energy, although the latest available year in our graphs is 2022, recently released data shows this share has held steady through 2024.15 Oil made up the largest share at 36% of primary energy – mostly used for transport. Oil consumption has generally fallen since the early 2000s and is expected to continue falling as the electric vehicle market grows, however declining oil use economy-wide may be offset by the Trump administration’s efforts to boost the oil industry.16
Meanwhile, consumption of fossil gas (35% of primary energy in 2022) has increased rapidly – mostly driven by demand in the power and industry sector. This has also contributed to a strong decline in coal consumption since 2008, falling from 24% of primary energy to 9% in 2022.17 Renewable energy has also increased in the power sector, generating 22% of electricity in 2022.
Targets and commitments
2035 target in 2024 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035 (including LULUCF)18
When excluding LULUCF, the US’ target translates to:
- 2886-3472 MtCO2e or 54-61% below 2005 levels by 2035
When including LULUCF, the US’ target translates to:
- 2240-2826 MtCO2e or 57-66% below 2005 levels by 2035
2030 target in 2021 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030 (including LULUCF)19
When excluding LULUCF, the US’ target translates to:
- 3871–4180 MtCO2e or 44-48% below 2005 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF)
Long-term target:
- As formulated by the country: net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 205020