What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions
The United States emitted 6161 MtCO₂e in 2024, excluding LULUCF. The energy sector accounts for 80% of total emissions in the US, or 4906 MtCO₂e. Within the energy sector, transport is responsible for 28% of overall emissions, followed by the power sector at 25% of overall emissions. Industry energy use, buildings and the fossil fuel industry each account for roughly 9% overall. While the energy sector produces primarily CO₂ emissions, agriculture, the next largest sector at roughly 10% of total 2024 emissions, is comprised nearly entirely of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions.
Total emissions in 2024 were 18% below 2005 levels. However, significant policy and regulatory rollbacks under the second Trump administration are projected to have resulted in a 2.5% year-on-year increase in emissions between 2024 and 2025.1 While our latest data is sourced from official submissions to the UNFCCC (of which the United States is no longer a member state) with a latest historical year of 2024, estimates for 2025 from the Rhodium Group project emissions growth in the transport, buildings and power sectors.2 Increased heating demand in homes relying on fossil gas, a 13% increase in coal-fired power generation, and increased energy demand from data centres are the main drivers of this emissions growth.
United States' 2024 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy
Primary energy in the United States in 2023 was dominated by fossil fuels, with oil and fossil gas accounting for almost 36% each. Coal still accounted for 10% of primary energy and was mainly used in the power sector for electricity generation. Biomass contributed roughly 5% of the primary energy mix, whereas non-biomass renewables (wind, solar, hydro) accounted for only 4% of total primary energy. Nuclear made up roughly 10% of the mix.
The share of coal in total primary energy has been on the decline since 2008, largely replaced by fossil gas.3 Oil has stayed steady since 2019 and the overall primary energy mix has stayed relatively unchanged since 2022. The Trump administration’s emphasis on fossil gas and coal in power generation could shift the trend,4 potentially increasing the share of fossil fuels in primary energy.5
The transport sector accounted for 40% of total final energy consumption, followed by industry and residential buildings at 18% and 17%, respectively.6 Policy changes under the second Trump administration could lead to changes in total final energy consumption, as potential removals of fuel efficiency and tailpipe emissions standards open the door for increased oil consumption.7