What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the building sector
The buildings sector accounted for 8% of US emissions in 2021, with the sector’s direct CO2 emissions remaining fairly constant since 1990.1,2 In 2021, about half of the sector’s energy demand was electrified with the majority of remaining demand met by fossil gas and coal.3
United States' energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In 2024, the US published its blueprint for decarbonising the buildings sector. It targets CO2 emissions reductions from on-site fossil fuel combustion of 25% below 2005 levels by 2035 and 75% below 2005 levels by 2050.4 These targets are not aligned with the 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here which show these emissions falling 55–65% below 2005 levels by 2035 and 93–99% below 2005 levels by 2050, respectively.
Across all three pathways, the buildings sector electrifies rapidly and continues to account for the largest share of electricity demand out of the buildings, transport and industry sectors. Of the three pathways, the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway sees the greatest reduction in energy demand in the buildings sector, which can be achieved through building retrofits and improved energy efficiency. Meanwhile, the Deep Electrification pathway relies more on cost reductions in wind and solar to meet growing electricity demand in the buildings sector, nearly double 2021 levels by 2050.
United States' buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United States
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
524
|
317 to
366
|
200 to
258
|
73 to
113
|
6 to
39
|
2040 to
2044
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-40 to
-30%
|
-62 to
-51%
|
-86 to
-78%
|
-99 to
-93%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
51
|
60 to
62
|
71 to
72
|
84 to
85
|
93 to
95
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
1
|
1 to
3
|
1 to
4
|
1 to
4
|
2 to
4
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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