What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Power sector CO2 emissions in the US have dropped significantly since the turn of the century with cheap fossil gas and renewables pushing coal out of the power system.1,2 To achieve the deeper emissions cuts seen in the analysed 1.5°C pathways, coal is essentially phased out of the power sector by 2030 and gas generation immediately declines and essentially phases out by 2035.
United States' power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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In the Deep Electrification pathway, which sees the highest overall levels of end-use sector electrification in the US of the pathways analysed, electricity generation more than doubles by 2040 from 2021 levels. Renewable energy including negative emissions technology reaches 84% of generation by 2030 and 95% by 2050. The majority of remaining power supply comes from hydrogen, which can be produced by wind and solar in periods of excess generation, stored, and then used in periods of low generation to balance supply and demand.
The Net-Zero Commitments pathway, which assumes some of the major net zero commitments announced by major economies (including the US) are met, achieves President Biden’s announced goal of a carbon-free power sector by 2035. The goal is met in part with the highest deployment of negative emissions technologies (e.g., BECCS) out of all four illustrative pathways, though the level of BECCS use is still less than 2% of power generation in 2035.
United States' power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
The United States is the second largest investor in renewable energy globally.3 In 2023, the US invested approximately USD 94 billion in renewable energy (including public and private sources), a 60% increase from 2022.4 In the same year, 42 GW of renewables came online including 35 GW of solar and 7 GW of wind capacity, bringing total renewable capacity to 430 GW.5
Across all analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways, average annual investments in renewable capacity peak in the short-term, between 2026–2030. This reflects the need for renewables to replace fossil fuel capacity, which would exit the power system by 2035 for the US to align with 1.5°C pathways.
Government projections show significant increases in renewable capacity – reaching around 1880 GW in 2050.6 However, analysed 1.5°C pathways show renewable capacity increasing to around 3400–5000 GW by mid-century, indicating the inadequacy of the current pace t to displace fossil fuels or prevent new oil and gas capacity.
In the Deep Electrification pathway, which sees high levels of electrification to decarbonise end-use sectors, average annual investment in renewable capacity between 2026–2030 more than doubles from 2023 levels to USD 247 billion. Investment levels subsequently fall over the next two decades after existing fossil capacity is replaced and costs for wind and solar continue to drop.
In the Net-Zero Commitments pathway, which achieves Biden’s target of a carbon-free power sector by 2035, investment requirements for renewable capacity peak at an average USD 157–171 billion annually between 2026–2030. While investments in renewables need to increase substantially, these levels of investment are comparable to US investments in fossil fuel supply, which have reached an estimated USD 192 billion in 2024.7
United States' renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United States
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
367
|
44 to
55
|
-4 to
5
|
-12 to
1
|
-17 to
0
|
2035 to
2036
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-88 to
-85%
|
-101 to
-99%
|
-103 to
-100%
|
-105 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
23
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
38
|
9 to
13
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
20
|
79 to
84
|
91 to
95
|
92 to
97
|
94 to
99
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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