What is Ecuador's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
As of 2019, Ecuador produced 78% of its power from renewable sources, with hydropower accounting for the majority of power production at 76%.1 Ecuador has never used coal in its power sector, but oil plays a significant role and accounted for roughly 18% of power production in 2019.2 Ecuador had previously set a target of achieving 90% renewable power supply by 20219, however, it is still far off that mark. The country has not yet set further renewable energy targets, although the government is currently drafting a long-term mitigation strategy and a national energy plan through 2050.3,4 A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Ecuador to reach at least a 98% share of non-biomass renewable power already by 2030 and 100% by 2040 at the latest. In its recent announcement of updates to the Master Electricity Plan through 2031, the government has indicated its intent to install 670 MW of wind and 490 MW of solar capacity between 2024–2028.5–6
Ecuador's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Ecuador’s power sector could be fully decarbonised by 2033 at the latest according to the 1.5°C compatible pathways. The decarbonisation will need to be driven by a phase-out of unabated fossil gas from the power sector by around 2030. Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy sources in the power sector could reach at least 98% by 2030 and 100% by 2040. Ecuador will need international support to increase investment in and installation of, non-hydro renewable power supply such as solar and wind, rather than continuing to maintain fossil gas and fuel oil alongside minor increases in hydropower and geothermal power as its current policy states.7 Slower uptake of renewable energy will require greater use of carbon removals technologies later to compensate. Scenarios under which the country does not reach 100% renewable power by 2040 require between 0.6–1.6 TWh/year of removals from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in the same year.
Ecuador's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Ecuador to be on the order of USD 1 to 3 billion by 2030 and USD 2 to 7 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Ecuador's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Ecuador
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
150
|
1 to
9
|
-9 to
0
|
-9 to
0
|
2025 to
2033
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-100 to
-94%
|
-106 to
-100%
|
-106 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2025 to
2028
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
78
|
99 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
22
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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