What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Brazil’s industry sector was responsible for 10% of total emissions in 2022, with emissions from industry energy use and industrial processes both contributing roughly 5%.1 In 2021, energy use in the industry sector relied primarily on biomass (43%) and electricity (23%).2 Industrial process emissions have doubled since 1990 and current policy is not expected to slow emissions.
Brazil's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which relies on deeper reductions in fossil fuels due to limited reliance on CDR, sees electricity increase to nearly 50% of the industry sector’s energy use by 2040, reducing biomass to just under 20% and introducing biofuels and biogas. In this pathway, industrial process emissions drop to 19 MtCO2 by 2040. In the Net Zero Commitments pathway, which assumes some major global economies meet their net zero goals by 2050, hydrogen plays a larger role, reaching 15% in 2050.
While fossil fuel industry emissions are not assessed here, Brazil is one of the top ten producers of oil and fossil gas, both of which drive up industry and fugitive emissions. Brazil’s state-owned oil and gas company Petrobras, estimated to be involved in 88% of all fossil fuel projects in Brazil, emitted 48 MtCO2e in 2022 – equivalent to roughly 11% of Brazil’s total energy emissions.3 4Despite record production levels in 2022, Petrobras achieved some emissions reductions through mitigation measures including reduced flaring, energy efficiency initiatives in extraction and refining, and increased investment in renewable energy.5 Petrobras has set a 2050 net zero target and entered Brazil’s voluntary carbon market in September 2023, purchasing credits equivalent to 170,000 tonnes of emissions. Reliance on offsets is fundamentally risky as the majority of land sector offsets fail to deliver genuine or additional emissions reductions.6,7
Brazil's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Brazil's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Brazil
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
108
|
44 to
66
|
26 to
54
|
-1 to
28
|
-29 to
15
|
2037 to
2044
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-59 to
-39%
|
-76 to
-50%
|
-101 to
-74%
|
-127 to
-86%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
23
|
31 to
36
|
36 to
39
|
37 to
50
|
40 to
60
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
67
|
79 to
80
|
84 to
86
|
86 to
94
|
90 to
100
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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