What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Brazil’s power sector is primarily supplied by hydropower, accounting for roughly 55% of generation in 2021.1 The power sector emissions rebounded after dipping in 2020.2 As our pathways begin in 2019, Brazil would need to take significant action to get on track for a 1.5°C compatible power sector.
Brazil's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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With renewable energy already dominant, Brazil is poised to quickly decarbonise the power sector if decisive action is taken. All analysed 1.5°C pathways phase out fossil gas and coal by 2025-2030, with renewables reaching up to 99% of total generation by 2030. By the mid-2030s Brazil’s power sector could be 100% renewable energy driven. The Deep Electrification pathway envisions rapid renewables deployment due to declining costs, showing a gas phase-out before 2030.
In the Reduced Asset Stranding pathway, which avoids the build-out of new fossil gas power plants that would need to be rapidly retired before the end of their economic lifetime, Brazil continues to deploy renewables at a rapid rate, including a small share from negative emissions technologies via BECCS.
Current policies plan to increase fossil gas infrastructure to balance hydro generation in the face of increasing drought. This risks saddling Brazil with stranded assets if it is to meet its climate commitments.3 If Brazil implements policies which prioritise renewables and energy storage systems, it could improve energy security and system resilience without introducing new fossil gas infrastructure.4
Brazil's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Brazil
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
134
|
-6 to
3
|
-17 to
1
|
-26 to
0
|
-33 to
0
|
2029 to
2030
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-104 to
-98%
|
-113 to
-99%
|
-119 to
-100%
|
-125 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
13
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
78
|
99 to
99
|
99 to
100
|
99 to
100
|
98 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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