What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
Transport is the largest source of Brazil’s energy emissions, at 13% of total emissions in 2022.1 While oil dominates at 74% of transport energy consumption in 2021, biofuels accounted for 22% – much higher than in most other countries.2 In all 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here, oil is phased down significantly, with growth in electricity and biofuels.
Brazil's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which limits carbon dioxide removal needs by rapidly phasing out fossil fuels, sees a complete phase-out of oil in the transport sector before 2050, but relies heavily on increasing biofuels.
Brazil has developed a policy framework to support high levels of biofuel use, primarily ethanol and biodiesel.3 Around 85% of light duty vehicles in Brazil are flex-fuel, meaning they can run on any mix of ethanol and petrol. Ethanol production for fuel primarily uses sugarcane as a feedstock, while biodiesel relies heavily on soybeans.4 Reliance on soybeans and sugarcane raises significant sustainability issues as feedstocks for biofuels can become a direct driver of deforestation (as croplands expand, they also displace cattle from pasture leading to further deforestation as ranchers seek new pasture).5
In the Deep Electrification pathway, the share of biofuels in the transport energy mix is held to around 30%, while electricity scales up to 64% by 2050. In this pathway, increased reliance on biofuels can be avoided through higher rates of electrification. There is some concern that the dominance of flex-fuel vehicles could set back the transition to zero emission vehicles, and major vehicle manufacturers like Toyota have announced plans to produce flex-fuel hybrid cars.6 Flex-fuel hybrids in Brazil are projected to have 2030 lifecycle emissions which are 17% lower than traditional combustion engine cars. However, these still produce twice the lifecycle emissions of an electric vehicle, even in the most optimistic scenarios.7
Brazil's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Brazil
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
200
|
111 to
169
|
84 to
127
|
22 to
63
|
0 to
4
|
2043 to
2048
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-45 to
-16%
|
-58 to
-37%
|
-89 to
-69%
|
-100 to
-98%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
9
|
4 to
25
|
8 to
47
|
20 to
64
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
22
|
26 to
47
|
25 to
55
|
25 to
70
|
33 to
78
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
1 to
2
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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