Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

At COP29, Brazil submitted a new NDC including a 2035 target aiming to reduce emissions 57-66%¹ below 2005 levels, or 832–1,033 MtCO₂e/yr (including LULUCF, AR4 GWPs²).³⁴ Brazil indicated its intent to use internationally transferred mitigation outcomes to reduce emissions beyond the minimum level of ambition of the target.⁵ Therefore, we interpret the more ambitious end of this range as an internationally supported, or conditional, target.

This target is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways. When including LULUCF, a 1.5°C aligned 2035 target for Brazil would see total domestic emissions including LULUCF fall to 368 MtCO₂e, or 85% below 2005 emissions. For more information on our indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways, please see our methodology page.

When excluding LULUCF, this is equivalent to 752-1,666 MtCO₂e/yr, or 21% below to 75% above 2005 levels. The wide range of estimated emissions is largely due to limited published government data on the expected contribution of the land use sector in meeting Brazil’s 2035 NDC.⁶ Despite the wide range, Brazil’s 2035 target is still not aligned with 1.5°C consistent pathways, which would require emissions to fall to 707 MtCO₂e/yr, or 26% below 2005 levels (excluding LULUCF) by 2035.

Brazil’s 2024 NDC does not explicitly reiterate the 2030 target from the previous NDC, which targeted emissions reductions of 53.1% below 2005 levels 1200 MtCO₂e per year⁷ in 2030 (including LULUCF).⁸ This is equivalent to 884 MtCO₂e per year, or 7% below 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF. This is still not aligned with 1.5°C consistent pathways, which would require emissions to fall to 801 MtCO₂e per year, or 16% below 2005 levels (excluding LULUCF) by 2030. Further, under current policies, Brazil is not expected to achieve its 2030 target excluding LULUCF.⁹

Despite updated (and improved) NDC targets, the government continues with contradictory policies, introducing new initiatives to slow deforestation while also planning significant subsidies for new oil and gas development.¹⁰

With international support, Brazil would be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level.¹¹

Brazil's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2005
2010

Target Year

2030
2035

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024

Long term pathway

Brazil’s 2024 NDC reiterates its long-term objective to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. In 1.5°C compatible pathways, Brazil’s emissions (excluding LULUCF) reach 442 MtCO₂e/yr, or 54% below 2005 levels by 2050.

Whether or not Brazil’s net zero target is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways depends to what extent it relies on emissions removals. Recent projections suggest that Brazil could reach net removals from LULUCF of about 700 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.¹² Assuming Brazil achieves this maximum level of net land-based emissions removals and ends deforestation by 2030 as pledged at both the 2021 Leaders Summit on Climate and COP27,¹³ Brazil’s 2050 net zero target would translate to annual GHG emissions of roughly 700 MtCO₂e, excluding LULUCF, which is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways.

To avoid relying on vulnerable land-based sinks to meet its target, Brazil would need to make deeper emissions cuts in other sectors, such as energy.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Brazil. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2005
2010

Indicator	2005 Reference year	2021	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	951	1183	658 to 801	478 to 707	351 to 611	260 to 442
Relative to reference year in %			-31 to -16%	-50 to -26%	-63 to -36%	-73 to -54%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	327	410	55 to 168	-35 to 112	-79 to 48	-177 to -62
Relative to reference year in %			-83 to -49%	-111 to -66%	-124 to -85%	-154 to -119%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024
- Download data as CSV

This varies from the original formulation in Brazil’s NDC (59-67% below 2005 levels) due to a difference in historical data. While the calculation of the absolute values in AR4 GWPs from the CAT (832-1,033 MtCO2e) uses base year data for 2005 from Brazil’s latest national inventory data, our time series is from an earlier CAT assessment using earlier inventory data. ↩
Brazil formulates its NDC target using global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. For comparability with our 1.5°C pathways, we convert the NDC target using GWPs from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. Further details on our assumptions can be found here. ↩
Government of Brazil, “Brazil Second NDC,” 2024 ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Brazil. 2035 NDC” (Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute, 2024) ↩
Government of Brazil, “Brazil Second NDC.” ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Brazil.” (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Forthcoming) ↩
Brazil formulates its NDC target using global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. For comparability with our 1.5°C pathways, we convert the NDC target using GWPs from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. Further details on our assumptions can be found here. ↩
Government of Brazil, “Brazil Second NDC”; Government of Brazil, “Brazil First NDC 2023 Adjustment,” 2023 ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Brazil.” ↩
Meghie Rodrigues, “Politics and the Environment Collide in Brazil: Lula’s First Year Back in Office,” Nature, December 21, 2023 ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Brazil. December 2023.” (Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute, 2023) ↩
Talita Cruz et al., “Plano de Descarbonizacao Para o Estado de Minas Gerais Dentro de Um Brazil Clima Neutro Em 2050. Relatorio Sintese Da Modelagem Integrada Para o Brasil” (Sao Paulo: CDP Latin America, March 2022). ↩
Al Jazeera, “Brazil’s President Lula Unveils Plan to End Deforestation by 2030,” Al Jazeera, June 2023 ↩

What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

Brazil's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Brazil's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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