What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Brazil’s power sector is primarily supplied by hydropower, accounting for roughly 63% of generation in 2022.1 The power sector emissions rebounded after dipping in 2020 as droughts limited hydropower generation, while fossil gas generation increased to compensate.2 As our pathways begin in 2019, Brazil would need to take significant action to get on track for a 1.5°C compatible power sector.
Brazil's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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While renewable electricity is already dominant, Brazil could further decarbonise its power sector if decisive action is taken. All analysed 1.5°C pathways phase out fossil gas and coal by 2025-2030, with renewables reaching up to 99% of total generation by 2030. The Deep Electrification pathway envisions the declining costs of renewables leading to a rapid deployment of wind and solar this decade, replacing fossil gas.
In the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which limits carbon dioxide removal needs through deeper cuts to fossil fuel use, Brazil continues to deploy renewables at a rapid rate, reaching nearly 99% of total generation by 2030 supported by a small amount of hydrogen.
Faced with increasing drought, the government plans to increase fossil gas infrastructure to balance hydropower generation in dry years. This, risks saddling Brazil with stranded assets if it is to meet its climate commitments.3 If Brazil implements policies which prioritise renewables and energy storage systems, it could improve energy security and system resilience without introducing new fossil gas infrastructure.4
Brazil's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Currently, Brazil is one of the world’s largest renewable energy investment destinations.5 This is largely attributed to its relatively robust policy framework, which was overhauled in the early 2000s to support diversification away from hydropower. Competitive auctions are actively used to expand wind and solar capacity.6 Brazil uses its national development bank (BNDES) and regional development banks to directly finance wind and solar projects, and BNDES is highly engaged in developing public-private partnerships and aligning finance with energy policy developments.7
Across all analysed pathways, the largest share of investment in power capacity out to 2050 is allocated to non-wind and solar renewables, mostly hydropower. This is largely due to the retirement and replacement of ageing hydropower plants. In the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, investments in wind and solar capacity ramp up to USD 8 bn annually in 2026-2030, reaching roughly USD 9 bn annually in from 2031 until 2050.
The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions seen in wind and solar over the past decade, sees a relatively higher share of capacity investments directed towards wind and solar as other renewables capacity plateaus, compared to other analysed pathways. Investments in wind and solar capacity reach roughly USD 10 bn annually in 2026-2030 before declining to USD 9 bn annually in 2031-2040 and roughly USD 7 bn annually in 2041-2050.
While this analysis considers only investments in renewables capacity, Brazil’s ageing transmission network will also require significant investments with the Ministry of Mines and Energy estimating USD 29 bn in transmission infrastructure investments over the decade 2024-2033.8
Brazil's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Brazil
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
134
|
-6 to
2
|
-17 to
0
|
-26 to
0
|
-33 to
0
|
2029 to
2030
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-104 to
-99%
|
-113 to
-100%
|
-119 to
-100%
|
-125 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
13
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
78
|
99 to
99
|
99 to
100
|
99 to
100
|
98 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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