What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Brazil’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 reached 1653 MtCO2e including LULUCF, or 1234 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, and are projected to grow without enhanced decarbonisation policies.1 Brazil has a unique national emissions profile with agriculture being the largest emitting sector, accounting for 38% of total GHG emissions in 2023, followed by LULUCF (25%), the energy sector (25%), waste (5.5%), and industrial processes (5.5%).2

Agricultural emissions increased by 62% between 1990 and 2023,3 primarily due to methane emissions from livestock, which now account for 27% of Brazil’s total GHG emissions. Accelerated deforestation in the 2010s, with a strong link to agriculture and especially cattle pasture led to a dramatic increase in emissions from the land sector after reaching a historic low in 2012 – although deforestation has slowed since 2022, with this trend continuing until 2024.4

While energy sector emissions peaked in 2014, they rebounded slightly in 2021, 2022 and 2023.5 The government projects that energy emissions will rise in the next decade under existing policies and could surpass the 2014 peak.6 This is in part due to the planned expansion of gas-powered electricity generation.7 Energy-related emissions from the transport, buildings, and industry sectors are all projected to increase over the next five to ten years.

Brazil's 2023 GHG emissions

including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Renewables make up a larger share of generation in the power sector, at 88% in 2024, driven primarily by hydro (56%), while solar (39.6% growth) and wind power production (12.4% growth) presented an uptake.8 Fossil gas, coal, oil, and nuclear power make up the remaining 12% of generation.9 Both total energy supply (+2.4%) as well as electricity supply (+5.5%) presented an increase compared to 2023.

Although the latest available year in our graphs is 2023, recently released data shows the share of renewables in Brazil’s primary energy mix increased to 50% in 2024, up from 47% in 2022. Most of this came from biomass (33%) and hydropower (12%), as well as a small but growing share of solar and wind (5%).[^10]

Brazil’s Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan projects that, under current policies, renewables will make up roughly 85% of centralised electricity generation by 2031, which is translated as a 3% decrease. Despite a near-doubling of wind and solar generation – along with a relatively slower expansion of hydropower over that time – the decrease in the overall share of renewables is largely due to the projected expansion of fossil gas and nuclear generation.10

However, the plan also sees oil production double and fossil gas production increase. Brazil’s New Gas Market programme aims to lower gas prices by expanding the fossil gas market, with the government looking to double gas power generation by 2031 to make up 14% of primary energy – up from 9.6% in 202411 Expanding fossil fuel generation as planned runs contrary to achieving Brazil’s NDC targets.

Targets and commitments

2035 target in 2024 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • 2035 target of 1.05 to 0.85 GtCO2e (59-67% reduction below 2005 levels, including LULUCF)12

When excluding LULUCF, Brazil’s target translates to:

  • 21-42% above 2005 levels, or 1175-1375 MtCO₂e by 203513

Conditional 2025 and 2030 targets in 2023 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • 2025 net GHG emissions limit of 1.32 GtCO2e (48.4% reduction below 2005 levels)

  • 2030 net GHG emissions limit of 1.20 GtCO2e (53.1% reduction below 2005 levels)

When excluding LULUCF, Brazil’s target translates to:

  • 57% above 2005 levels by 2030, or 1517 MtCO2e

Long-term target

As formulated by the country:

  • Climate neutral by 205014
  • Brazil has not submitted a Long-Term Strategy to the UNFCCC but reiterated the climate neutral 2050 objective in its last NDC update in November 2024.

Cookie settings

Just like other websites, we use cookies to improve and personalize your experience. We collect standard Internet log information and aggregated data to analyse our traffic. Our preference cookies allow us to adapt our content to our audience interests.