What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Brazil’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 reached 1650 MtCO2e including LULUCF, or 1163 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, and are projected to grow without enhanced decarbonisation policies.1,2 Brazil has an unusual national emissions profile with agriculture being the largest emitting sector, accounting for 36% of total GHG emissions in 2022,3 followed by LULUCF (30%) energy (25%), waste (5%), and industrial processes (5%).
Agricultural emissions increased by 53% between 1990 and 2022, primarily due to methane emissions from livestock and soil emissions.4 Accelerated deforestation has led to a dramatic increase in emissions from the land sector after reaching a historic low in 2010, however deforestation has slowed since 2022.
While energy sector emissions peaked in 2014, they rebounded slightly in 2021 and 2022.5 The government projects that energy emissions will rise in the next decade under existing policies and could surpass the 2014 peak.6 This is in part due to the planned expansion of gas-powered electricity generation.7 Energy-related emissions from the transport, buildings, and industry sectors are all projected to increase over the next five to ten years.
Brazil's 2022 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Brazil’s primary energy mix has a relatively large share of renewables (43% in 2022), mostly from biomass (29%) and hydropower (11%) as well as a small but growing share of solar and wind (3%).8
Renewables make up a larger share of generation in the power sector, at 88% in 2022, driven primarily by hydro. Fossil gas, coal, nuclear power and oil make up the remaining 12% of generation.9 The Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan projects that under current policies, renewables will make up roughly 85% of centralised electricity generation by 2031 – despite a near-doubling of wind and solar generation over that time, the decrease in the overall share of renewables is largely due to the projected expansion of fossil gas and nuclear generation and relatively slower expansion of hydropower.10
However, the plan also sees oil production double and fossil gas production increase. The government’s New Gas Market programme aims to lower gas prices by expanding the Brazilian fossil gas market, with the government looking to double gas power generation by 2031, to make up 14% of primary energy.11 Expanding fossil generation as planned would be contrary to the further decarbonisation that is needed.
Targets and commitments
Target in 2024 NDC
- As expressed by the country:
2035 target of 1.05 to 0.85 GtCO2 (59% to 67% reduction below 2005 levels, including LULUCF)12
- When excluding LULUCF, Brazil’s target translates to:
A national action component (unconditional target) of 0% to 75% above 2005 levels or 953–1666 MtCO2e by 2035, and
an internationally supported component (conditional target) of 21% below to 54% above 2005 levels or 752–1465 MtCO₂e by 203513
Target in 2023 NDC
- As expressed by the country:
2025 net GHG emissions limit of 1.32 GtCO2e (48.4% reduction below 2005 levels)14
2030 net GHG emissions limit of 1.20 GtCO2e (53.1% reduction below 2005 levels)15
- When excluding LULUCF, Brazil’s target translates to:
7% below 2005 levels or 884 MtCO2e by 203016
Sector Coverage
Agriculture, Waste, Industry (processes), Energy, LULUCF
Long-term target
- As formulated by the country:
Climate neutral by 205017
- Brazil has not submitted a Long-Term Strategy to the UNFCCC, but reiterated the climate neutral 2050 objective in its last NDC update in November 2024.