Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Peru’s conditional NDC target, updated in 2020, aims for absolute emissions of 108 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (15% above 2015 levels), excluding LULUCF.¹ Post-COVID policy projections for the country estimate that 2030 emissions will be around 116 MtCO₂e/yr (23% above 2015 levels).²

1.5°C compatible pathways show that Peru’s 2030 emissions would need to be 26–41% below 2015 levels by 2030, reaching between 60–75 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF emissions. Peru would therefore need to mitigate at least an additional 33 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 on top of its conditional NDC target to fall within the upper range of 1.5°C compatible emission reduction targets.

It is feasible for Peru to reduce emissions in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways goal if it receives adequate international support. This support can help it close the gap between its fair share level and the 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.

Peru's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Peru has announced its intent to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF by 2050, according to preliminary findings from a technical study carried out by Peru’s Ministry of the Environment.³ The government has not yet released a clear strategy for reaching this goal.⁴

When excluding LULUCF emissions, Peru‘s remaining GHG emissions by 2050 should not exceed around 16 MtCO₂e/yr. This level equals to emissions reductions of at least 83% below 2015 levels.⁵ Achieving this pace of decarbonisation will require international support.

The key drivers of emissions reductions will be the decarbonisation of the power and transport sectors, where emissions will need to be drastically reduced by switching to renewable sources of power production and zero-emission vehicles. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon sinks, likely from the land sector. Given the high share of LULUCF emissions (more than half of total GHG emissions in Peru’s latest national inventory report), the country will need to implement stringent policies to stop deforestation. LULUCF emissions will need to reduce and the sector to become a larger sink. Historically, the Peruvian Amazon rainforest has seen its area shrinking due to activities such as mining, logging, and the expansion of agro-industry.⁶

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

The transport and power sectors will be key to decarbonising Peru’s energy system. Peru’s total primary energy supply (TPES) is dominated by oil and natural gas, used to power the country’s vehicles, industry and residential sectors, with only a 25% share of renewable energy in the TPES in 2018.⁷

Between 30–57% of Peru’s TPES will need to be generated from renewable sources by 2030 and 51–95% by 2050 to be on a 1.5°C pathway. Lower shares of renewable energy in TPES would result in higher reliance on negative emissions technologies to balance remaining emissions. CO₂ emissions for the whole energy sector would need to drop between 28–45 MtCO₂/yr by 2030 and be fully decarbonised by 2050.

Unless renewable energy is quickly ramped up in the energy sector, negative emissions technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) will need to be implemented as soon as possible to compensate for the continued emissions from the energy sector.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Peru. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	94	100	70 61 to 81	39 31 to 46	16 -6 to 35	2060
Relative to reference year in %			-25% -35 to -14%	-58% -67 to -51%	-83% -107 to -63%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	52	56	39 28 to 45	9 -3 to 19	-11 -31 to 1	2044 2039 to 2058
Relative to reference year in %			-25% -46 to -12%	-82% -106 to -62%	-122% -160 to -98%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update
- Download data as CSV

To exclude LULUCF emissions, it was assumed that the percentage of share of mitigation effort in the LULUCF sector is the same as described in the first NDC and this value is subtracted from the absolute value. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020). ↩
Ministerio de Ambiente de Peru. Estiman que reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero beneficiará al país en 98 mil millones de dólares al 2050. Press Release, Ministerio de Ambiente (2020). ↩
Gobierno del Peru. Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional del Perú. Reporte de actualización periodo 2021-2030. 29 (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020).“:https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/peru/ ↩
International Energy Agency (IEA). Peru: Total energy supply (TES) by source. (2020). ↩

What is Peru's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Peru's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Peru's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Peru's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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