1.5°C compatible emissions pathways would require Peru to reduce its emissions by 21–40% below 2015 levels or to emissions levels of 61–81 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF.29
Peruʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Peru’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets a target to limit emissions to 179 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 including LULUCF. It translates to absolute emissions levels of 108 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF, or a 15% emissions increase above 2015 levels.1,2 Updated in 2020, the target is conditional on the country receiving international support.
1 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Peru. (2020).
2 Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020).
3 Ministerio de Ambiente de Peru. Estiman que reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero beneficiará al país en 98 mil millones de dólares al 2050. Press Release, Ministerio de Ambiente (2020).
4 Gobierno del Peru. Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional del Perú. Reporte de actualización periodo 2021-2030. 29 (2020).
5 Ministerio de Energía y Minas Peru. Minem: al cierre del último año se ejecutaron 49 proyectos de energías renovables en el Perú. (2021).
6 COES Perú. Actualización Plan de Transmision 2021 – 2030. (2020).
7 Andina Staff. 15% of Peru’s energy matrix in 2030 to be generated from renewable sources. Andina: Agencia Peruana de Noticias (2018).
8 International Energy Agency. Peru: Electricity generation by source. (2020).
9 BN Americas. What’s next for Peru’s failed 7-region gas concession call? BN Americas (2021).
10 Ministry of the Environment. Peru. Inventario Nacional de Gases de Efecto Invernadero del Año 2016 y Actualización de las Estimaciones de los Años 2000, 2005, 2010, 2012 y 2014. (2021).
11 Guglielmetti, F. Por decreto Perú facilita ingreso de vehículos eléctricos, híbridos y de hidrógeno verde. Portal movilidad (2022).
12 Ministerio de Transporte y Comunicaciones (MTC). Decreto Supremo que crea el Programa Nacional de Transporte Urbano Sostenible. Peru government (2019).
13 Reuters Staff. Peru says deforestation on the rise, up 80 percent from 2001. Reuters (2014).
14 International Energy Agency (IEA). Peru: Total energy supply (TES) by source. (2020).
15 Banco del Desarrollo de Perú (COFIDE). Prácticas e instrumentos financieros para promover la descarbonización de la movilidad urbana. (2019).
16 COFIDE. KfW y COFIDE firman acuerdo de préstamo por 250 millones de euros para Programa “Covid 19: Programa de Reactivación Verde”. (2020).
17 Organismo Supervisor de Inversión en Energía y Minería (OSINERGMIN)- Perú. La industria del gas natural en el Perú a diez años del Proyecto Camisea. vol. 51 (2017).
18 El Congreso de la República de Perú. LEY No 29969: Ley que dicta disposiciones a fin de promover la masificación del gas natural. El Peruano vol. 23 32 (El Congreso de la Repúblic de Perú, 2012).
19 Government of Peru. Peruvian submission to the UNFCCC under the Copenhagen accord. (2010).
20 Ministerio del Ambiente- Perú. Segundo Informe Bienal de Actualización ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático. (2019).
21 Ministry of Environment of Peru. Programa Bosques del Minam proyecta conservar 10 millones de hectáreas de bosques comunales hacia el 2030. (2020).
22 Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020).”:https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/peru/
23 BN Americas. Increasing natural gas use in 7 Peruvian regions: a mature and profitable project. (2020).
24 Gaillard, C. Sustainable construction in Peru between informality, unskilled labour, self-construction and corruption. Construction 21 (2019).
25 Ministerio de Vivienda, C. y S. Decreto Supremo que Aprueba el Codigo Tecnico de Construccion Sostenible. (2021).
26 Ministry of the Environment. Peru. National Inventory Report 2016 and update 2000, 2005, 2010, 2012 y 2014. (2021).
27 Salas Oblitas, L. Autos híbridos y eléctricos: ¿cómo está el Perú respecto a los países de la región? El Comercio (2020).
28 Government of Peru. Decreto Supremo que crea el Programa Nacional de Transporte Urbano Sostenible. (Ministry of Transport and Communications, 2019).
29 To exclude LULUCF emissions, it was assumed that the percentage of share of mitigation effort in the LULUCF sector is the same as described in the first NDC and this value is subtracted from the absolute value.
30 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
It is feasible for Peru to reduce its emissions in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway if the country receives adequate international support. The support can help close the gap between Peru’s fair share and the 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.
When excluding LULUCF emissions, Peru‘s GHG emissions by 2050 should not exceed around 35 MtCO₂e/yr. The amount equals to emissions reductions of at least 83% below 2015 levels. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches.30
Land-use and forestry
Given its high share of LULUCF emissions, Peru will need to implement stringent policies to halt deforestation, to reduce LULUCF emissions and allow the land sector to become a larger carbon sink.
- In 2019, around 60% of Peru’s electricity was generated from renewables – mainly from hydropower. Solar and wind had only about a 4% share, while fossil gas accounted for approximately 38%.8 1.5°C compatible pathways show that gas needs to be phased out from the power sector between 2033 and 2035.
- Peru aims to achieve a 15% share of non-hydro renewables such as solar and wind in the power sector by 2030.5–7 In 1.5°C pathways, total renewables reach over 90% by this time.
- Peru’s power sector could be fully decarbonised by the mid-2030s to be aligned with a 1.5°C compatible pathway. However, international support will be needed to achieve this goal in such an ambitious time frame.
- The share of electricity in the building sector energy mix was over 30% in 2019, with biomass and oil and gas covering the rest.
- The analysed 1.5°C pathways show that the sector could be decarbonised between 2030 and 2043, with the share of electricity doubling by 2030 from 2019 values and reaching close to 90% in 2050.
- Current measures, such as the technical code for sustainable construction, promoting energy efficiency and appliance labelling programmes, are unlikely to be sufficient to drive the necessary emission reductions in the sector.
- The industry sector’s emissions come mainly from the construction sector, particularly the mineral industry and cement and lime production.10
- The share of electricity in 2019 was around 40%. Under a 1.5°C compatible pathway, it would need to increase to around 53% by 2030 and 80% in 2050. The sector could then reach full decarbonisation between 2035 and 2037. Achieving these goals in such an ambitious timeframe will require considerable international support.
- With a 9% share, the transport sector is the largest individual source of energy sector emissions.
- Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, Peru could reduce direct CO₂ emissions from transport by between 20% to 32% below 2019 levels by 2030.
- Electric vehicle (EV) sales in Peru are still very low, but the government has implemented measures to incentivise emissions reductions, such as a decree to promote the purchase of EVs and hybrids through low taxes and parking benefits.11