Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Morocco’s updated NDC includes a conditional emissions reduction target of 45.5% below BAU by 2030, which translates, when excluding LULUCF, to 1% emissions reduction below 2010 levels by 2030. The NDC target includes an unconditional component of 18.3% below BAU by 2030.¹ By comparison, 1.5°C compatible cost-effective pathways reflect the need for emissions levels to reach between 60-76 MtCO₂e by 2030 (or 0-21% below 2010 levels).

Morocco’s conditional NDC target would therefore fall within the upper limit of a 1.5°C compatible pathway. However, current policy projections suggest that Morocco’s emissions will reach between 78-121 MtCO₂e by 2030 (or 3-60% above 2010 levels). While the lower bound of these projections is close to the NDC target, the higher bound falls far short of being on a Paris Agreement compatible pathway .

While Morocco’s conditional target would be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, this is contradictory to its plan to expand its coal pipeline, with the country currently building a 1.3 GW coal power plant and in the process of expanding existing coal power plants lifetime. The country would have to strengthen its current policies and activities, specially phasing-out coal instead of expanding it, to ensure that a 1.5°C compatible pathway is achievable by 2030.

Morocco's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Morocco submitted its 2050 long-term strategy to the UNFCCC in December 2021. While it does not provide a quantified emissions reduction target for 2050, the strategy aims, among others, at increasing the share of renewables in the power sector to up to 80% by 2050 and electrifying its end-use sectors. The strategy includes a goal to reach ‘carbon neutrality during this century’.

By 2050, Morocco would need to reduce its emissions to between 29-38 MtCO₂e to be compatible with 1.5°C pathways. This is equivalent to a 50-62% reduction in emissions relative to 2010 levels.

Most analysed scenarios show the energy sector decarbonising first between 2045 and 2065, depending on the scenario. One scenario also suggests that it is possible for the IPPU sector to decarbonise simultaneously with the energy sector around 2040-2045.

In all scenarios, agriculture persists as the largest sectoral source of emissions beyond 2050, with the waste sector being a relatively minor contributor in some scenarios. In all scenarios but one, the IPPU sector persists as the second-largest sectoral source of emissions beyond 2050.

On the road towards net zero, Morocco will need to reduce its reliance on coal which will be required to be phased-out around 2030 instead of moving ahead with its expansion projects with the risk of getting stuck in a carbon intensive pathway (see current situation for more information). On the long term, the country will need to balance its remaining emissions through the development of carbon dioxide removal approaches. However, such technologies are not yet available in the country, and would require high upfront costs.²

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

1.5°C compatible pathways would see the share of fossil fuels in Morocco’s primary energy mix reduce from approximately 91% in 2019 to around 4-12% by 2050, depending on the scenario. Simultaneously, the share of renewables would have to rise from 9% in 2019 to between 74-95% by 2050, depending on the scenario. Morocco’s CO₂ emissions would have to peak immediately and begin reducing thereafter.

Lower penetration of renewables would require the development of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches such as land sinks or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to balance residual emissions in the long term. Some models show that up to 14% of Morocco’s energy mix could be sourced from BECCS between 2040-2050, with the technology starting to be employed by as early as 2030. However, such technologies are not yet available in the country, and would require high upfront costs. The need for BECCS technology and their associated costs could be avoided by implementing stringent policies to enhance the role of the LULUCF sector as a carbon sink and source of negative emissions.³

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Morocco. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2010 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	76	100	64 60 to 76	46 38 to 50	34 29 to 38
Relative to reference year in %			-15% -21 to 0%	-40% -49 to -34%	-55% -62 to -50%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	43	67	45 36 to 49	20 10 to 29	7 2 to 19	2065
Relative to reference year in %			5% -18 to 13%	-54% -77 to -34%	-83% -96 to -57%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Ministère de l’Energie, des M. et de l’Environnement, D. de l’Environnement. Contribution Déterminée au Niveau National - Actualisée. (2021). ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩

What is Morocco's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Morocco's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Morocco's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Morocco's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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