What is Morocco's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
The industry sector’s share of total final energy consumption in Morocco has been declining over the past decade, from 23.5% of total final consumption in 2012 to 19.2% in 2019 while emissions have been steadily rising.1 The Government of Morocco estimates that emissions from this sector will rise from around 20 MtCO₂e in 2010 to 33.23 MtCO₂e in 2030 under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, which is equivalent to 65% by 2030.2
Morocco's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The energy-related direct CO₂ emissions of Morocco’s industry sector are slightly higher than the emissions from industry-related processes. To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Morocco’s industry sector would need to decarbonise between 2048-2054, with direct CO₂ emissions reducing from 8 MtCO₂/year in 2019 to 3 MtCO₂ in 2040, and 0-2 MtCO₂ by 2050.
Some scenarios indicate that energy-related emissions will reduce faster than process-related emissions. Almost all scenarios indicate that energy-related emissions will be closer to full decarbonisation by 2060. The decarbonisation would be primarily driven by an increase in the share of electricity in the sector’s energy supply from 33% in 2019 to 50-64% by 2050. Some scenarios also suggest that biofuels, biomass, and hydrogen would start to replace some of the oil and coal that currently power 61% of the industry sector. These new sources of energy could be introduced as early as 2030-2040. To be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, the collective share of electricity, biomass, and hydrogen in the sector’s energy supply would have to increase from 34% in 2019 to 52-62% in 2040, and 73-85% by 2050.
With regards to process-related emissions, some scenarios suggest that emissions could reduce from 6 MtCO₂e in 2019 to 0-4 MtCO₂e by 2040. This could be driven by improved production processes and innovation. Morocco aims to mitigate 19 MtCO₂e in the total industry sector by 2030 (relative to BAU levels)this includes 8 MtCO₂e by 2030 (relative to BAU levels) for process-related emissions.3 However, one of the mitigation interventions for processing industries is the utilisation of 500 million m³ of natural gas between 2021 and 2023 to replace fuel in thermal processes.4 This will lead to increase in emissions, and risks the country locking itself in a carbon-intensive pathway and creating stranded assets.
Morocco's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Morocco's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Morocco
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
8
|
6 to
8
|
3 to
3
|
0 to
2
|
2048 to
2054
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-19 to
4%
|
-58 to
-55%
|
-95 to
-78%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
33
|
27 to
29
|
40 to
45
|
59 to
64
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
34
|
35 to
47
|
52 to
62
|
73 to
85
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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