What is Angola's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways for Angola indicate that the power sector’s carbon intensity would need to decrease from 300 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 0-10 gCO₂/kWh by 2030 as the government pursues strategies to expand electrification as a fundamental driver of the country’s human and industrial development.

The government does not have an explicit power sector decarbonisation plan, however, in the Angola Energy 2025 plan, the Ministry of Energy and Water estimated that by 2025 the country would have about 9.9 GW of generation capacity; 66% of total installed capacity being hydropower, fossil gas (19%), new renewables (8%) and new thermal generation (7%).¹1 1.5°C compatible pathways would require 99% renewables in the electricity mix by 2030-2031, up from 70% in 2019. Fossil gas and oil, which contributed 11% and 30% of the mix respectively in 2019, would need to be phased out between 2030 and 2031.

Angola has substantial untapped hydropower potential, with only 20% being utilised as of 2022. This is key to the government’s agenda for energy access and security,²2 as the majority of its current renewable electricity comes from hydropower. But even if Angola achieves 70% installed renewable capacity, it will still be heavily reliant on hydropower generation, which is vulnerable to climate change impacts. In dry years, hydropower might drop to as little as 48% of power production. This would result in the grid needing to rely heavily on fossil gas power stations, and possibly even electricity imports during peak times.³3