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Angola In brief

What is Angolaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Economy wide

A 1.5°C compatible pathway for Angola would require emissions to fall 22% compared to 2015 levels by 2025 (excluding LULUCF) to reach 80 MtCO₂e. International support would be needed to achieve these emissions reductions.

Angolaʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
−100%−80%−60%−40%−20%0%20%19902010203020502070
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−48%
NDC (conditional)
−19%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions

2030 NDC

Angola’s NDC aims to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 14% compared to Business as Usual (BAU), with an additional 10% reduction by 2025 conditional on international support.

Angola’s has a large LULUCF sector, the emissions from which are difficult to estimate. Excluding LULUCF, the country’s NDC would see emissions levels of around 83 MtCO₂e by 2025, or a reduction of 19% compared to 2015.

1 Republic of Angola. National Communication (NC 2). (2021).

2 IEA. Total energy supply (TES) by source, Angola 1990-2020. (2023).

3 African Development Bank Group. In Angola, the African Development Bank supports the Renewable Energy Sector. (2023).

4 African Development Bank. Angola Renewable Energy Program (AREP) – Project Completion Report. (2023).

5 Governo de Angola. Nationally Determined Contribution, 2021. (2021). Angola.pdf

6 Net Zero Tracker: Angola. (2023).

7 Ministério da Energia e Àguas. Angola Energia 2025. (2018).

8IEA. Angola Energy Outlook.(2019).”: https://www.iea.org/articles/angola-energy-outlook

Long-term strategy

To date, Angola has not articulated a long-term strategy or net zero target.

2050 ambition

Long-term 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Angola would need to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 22-39 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, or a 79-62% reduction in emissions compared to 2015, excluding LULUCF.

Remaining emissions

Given the high level of LULUCF emissions in Angola, reducing its land sector emissions will be key to reducing overall emissions.

Sectors

Power

  • A 1.5°C compatible pathway for the power sector would require 99% renewables in the electricity mix by 2030-2031, up from 70% in 2019.
  • Fossil gas and oil, which represented 11% and 30% of the power mix respectively in 2019, need to be phased out between 2030 and 2031.
  • Angola’s extensive hydropower network is vulnerable to climate impacts on water levels, requiring the use of variable renewables to mitigate these risks.
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Transport

  • To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, CO₂ emissions from the transport sector should be roughly halved by 2030 and reach full decarbonisation by around 2050.
  • This can be achieved through a rapid uptake of the use of electricity in the sector, combined with other low-emissions fuels. In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the share of electricity could grow from 0% in 2019 to 6-21% by 2030, and 17-36% by 2050.
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Footnotes