What is Angola's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
Raising 2030 ambition
Angola submitted its updated NDC in May 2021, in which it brought forward the target year for cutting emissions to 2025, five years earlier than in its first NDC.1
1.5°C consistent emissions pathways for Angola would require emissions to be reduced to 80 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF) or a 22% reduction from 2015 levels by 2025. However, it is crucial to note the very high uncertainty present in the estimation of this target when excluding LULUCF.
There are significant discrepancies between different historical datasets of Angola’s emissions and the country’s own greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory. These discrepancies range from 100 Mt to around 30 Mt.
In addition, Angola reports that AFOLU emissions (including LULUCF) constitute approximately 77% of its GHG emissions and are therefore an important focus of decarbonisation. Our methodology does not include LULUCF emissions. When coupled with the above data discrepancies, this introduces a high level of uncertainty.
Angola's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
As of 2022, Angola has not formally announced a net zero target or submitted a long term strategy to the UNFCCC.
A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Angola to produce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of no more than 27 MtCO₂e/yr (excluding LULUCF) by 2050, which is 74% below 2015 GHG levels.
Efforts to reduce LULUCF emissions, including but not limited to expanding and accelerating commitments to limit deforestation and to afforest degraded lands, would be essential to achieving such emissions reductions. Angola’s CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) would need to reduce from 29 MtCO₂/yr in 2015 to approximately 2 MtCO₂ in 2050 – a 93% reduction.
Angola's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
Our methodology does not include analysis of LULUCF emissions, which are Angola’s largest source of emissions and must therefore play a pivotal role in decarbonising the economy. Angola’s energy mix was evenly split between renewables (incl. biomass) and fossil fuels (oil and gas) in 2019.
Expanding access to electricity in rural areas while also providing additional capacity for economic development – as outlined in Angola’s Vision 2025 – requires even more renewables in the total primary energy supply (TPES), if growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to be avoided.
1.5°C compatible would require a shift towards renewables. Our analysis show that renewables energy could increase from 50% in 2019 to 76% in 2030 under a low energy demand scenario. In a high-demand scenario, renewables could supply 90% of primary energy by 2050, with the addition of fossil fuels with negative CO₂ emissions technologies (both BECCS and CCS). These technologies remain unproven at scale.
Angola's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Angola. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
103
|
101
|
54
48 to
68
|
35
30 to
42
|
27
22 to
39
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-48%
-53 to
-34%
|
-66%
-71 to
-60%
|
-74%
-79 to
-62%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
29
|
27
|
19
15 to
20
|
6
3 to
9
|
2
-0 to
5
|
2062
2049 to
2070
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-35%
-50 to
-31%
|
-79%
-91 to
-70%
|
-93%
-101 to
-84%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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